""10.6% will be a great underestimate of the proportion who have succumbed because by age 44, half have ALREADY DIED.""

If you are talking about HIV Keith, you are wrong because only 50% of HIV positives actually develop AIDS at all.

If you are talking about AIDS sufferers, you are still wrong because The figures you are using relate to HIV diagnoses, and the number of AIDS cases won't become clear for approximately ten years, and maybe (with improved treatment) not even then.

In short, Royston's figures, culled from the HPA, are bound to be much closer to the truth than your flawed and slanted claims.

Don T.