I think the music industry is in the early stages of a revolution that will turn the whole business upside down. For about a hundred and fifty years the product has been the song (sheet music, and recorded formats) and all the focus of the pop music industry has been selling the song. Now, no matter how many lawsuits they win they can't stop songs from being distributed free over the Internet. The Napster idea is here to stay, the technology is beyond their control. The song will stop being the product.

What they will eventually realize is that, for pop music, the star is the product and the song is just the advertisement. Instead of overblown hoopla to sell a song, the song will become a loss leader to sell the overblown hoopla. Does anybody really believe that the Spice Girls or Back Street Boys have anything to do with music? Before Jerry Garcia died the Grateful Dead was the highest grossing act in show business. They never had a hit record and they encouraged people to record and trade their music. This will become the new model. The pop song sellers will go down kicking and screaming but will die in the end.

The real question is how this revolution will effect "real" music (I won't elaborate, you know what I mean.) I think the markets will become more segmented with smaller and smaller niches. The audience and the performer will become closer economically and music will be distributed the way Stephen King is selling his new novel on-line. I realize this is all speculation and things are liable to get worse before they get better but I'm convinced that RADICAL change is coming.