Like in may other spheres of music, luck may get you a big break but is no guarentee of any longer term success (or even short term in many cases). Longer term success (and a possible career) entails all parts of the "package" being right so image, material, skill, attitude everything has got to be spot on. Without that all the luck in the world won't help make a career.

Although we always say that folk is a small world I suspect in relative artist terms it is not much, if any, smaller than other "bigger" spheres of music. The chances of making the breakthrough in rock or classical are probably about the same as in folk, the difference being that you can make it huge in those areas even though most full-time rock or classical musicians are probably no better off than most of their folk equivilents and are equally adept at balancing umpteen different strands to make a living.

Steve