Iran 'definitely' building nuclear weapon
June 14, 2010 - 4:47am

(AP) J.J. Green, wtop.com

WASHINGTON - Due to concern over potentially harmful international political implications, U.S. officials will only say they "believe" Iran is engaged in a clandestine program that may yield a nuclear weapon.

However, the men and women working undercover to stop Iran from doing so are willing to say much more.

"There is no doubt Iran is definitely building a nuclear weapon," a senior foreign counterproliferation official with a U.S. ally says in an exclusive interview with WTOP.

"Oh yes, in my opinion it is fact. "We see it every day," the official says.

The Obama administration is clearly concerned.

"The nature and scope of Iran's nuclear program causes the U.S. and the international community to question whether Iran's nuclear intentions are peaceful," says National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer.

"Iran is pursuing a nuclear program that includes significant capabilities, particularly its uranium enrichment and heavy water reactor capabilities that would provide Iran a nuclear weapons capability," Hammer says, adding that the capabilities "are not inherently capable of supporting Iran's stated objective of a peaceful nuclear power program."

Hammer says the body of evidence against Iran includes belligerent statements from Iranian officials, human intelligence sources and Iran's own military activity.

"Iran is, at a minimum, keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. Iran also continues to advance its ballistic missile programs throughout the region and to increasingly longer ranges," says Hammer.

Recent reports have emerged that Iranian agents are using the port of Dubai to smuggle sophisticated electronics. The foreign counterproliferaton official says, with certainty, the smuggling operations go well beyond Dubai.

"We have seen them try to use UAE (United Arab Emirates), Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore, to name a few other countries."

U.S. counterproliferation agents, while toeing a very thin political line, seem to corroborate the official's statement.

"We see a number a number of trans-shipment points around the world. It is correct to say that Iran does not exclusively use Dubai," says Timothy Gildea, a special agent in the Counterproliferation Investigations Unit of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement department.

"They will evolve their transshipment practices. If one area becomes elevated and law enforcement is focusing on that (area), they will move it (their smuggling operation) around as required to get that equipment to their country," Gildea says.

The most damning allegation comes from the broad selection of items that are being smuggled that list Iran as their final destination.

Clark Settles, chief of the Counter Proliferation Investigations unit, says the variety of items leaves little doubt of Iran's true intentions.

"If they were just acquiring items for uranium enrichment and not a lot of the other items that they've attempted to acquire -- from missile guidance, to triggered spark gaps that are used to detonate nuclear weapons -- if they were just trying acquire one thing and not the other, then argument would hold some water," says Settles.

Counterproliferation experts say Iranian agents' smuggling operations include parties who aren't aware they are doing anything illegal.

But Settles says most of those arrested are very clear about what's going on.

"In an undercover capacity, we act in every role - as the shippers, the freight forwarders, the buyers, the sellers - to really delve into these networks to prove that they are not innocent individuals that are being duped by the Iranians or by somebody else."

"They know exactly what they're doing. They're doing it for profit or they work for those governments or those terrorist groups."

Scores of people arrested on smuggling charges were trying to move dual-use components, which can be used for both peaceful and military purposes. These components are legal to buy and ship to places. Iran is not one of those places.

Mahmoud Yadegari, an Iranian-Canadian citizen who is on trial in Canada for procuring nuclear dual-use components from a U.S. company and attempting to re-export them to Iran, claims he was not deceived into doing it.

Yadegari allegedly purchased pressure transducers, which can be used in gas centrifuge plants - a key link in the process of weaponizing nuclear material.

In 2007, an official U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program suggested the Iranians had suspended its program.

One of the key judgments of the report stated:

"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

But the senior foreign counterproliferation official who spoke with WTOP says, "We really have not seen any change in Iranian procurement efforts over the last 5 years."

Settles, with ICE, indicates U.S. law enforcement hasn't seen much of a change either.

"We've played it in out in (U.S.) court and we've caught a significant number of people. When you put the two together, it still appears they have intentions of moving their nuclear weapons program forward," he says.

Another round of sanctions has had little effect on Iran's resolve.

"From right and from left, they adopt sanctions, but for us, they are annoying flies, like a used tissue," said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after the sanctions were announced.

The Obama administration has said that "all options are on the table" in order to stop Iran from possessing nuclear weapons.

When asked on The Politics Program with Mark Plotkin whether Israel is planning to stop Iran from developing a bomb, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Michael Oren reiterated the Obama administration's stance.

As intelligence officials struggle to define what Iran is up to, so does a former U.N. weapons inspector.

"I think the evidence that I have seen - and there is no doubt a lot that I have not seen - indicates that (Iran is) taking all the critical steps along the way that they need to get to a weapon, but I do not know whether they have decided to go all the way or stop just short of having deployable weapons," says David Kay.

However, Kay says it may not matter.

"We will soon have to start treating them and reassuring allies as if they had decided to go all the way."