New Third Way Economy Poll: Republicans Shedding the Bush Legacy

But Poll Shows Enormous Power of Injecting Bush into the Debate

July 19, 2010 Washington, DC –

Just eighteen months after President Bush left office with the nation's economy in historic freefall, two-thirds of Americans now see congressional Republicans and their economic ideas as new and completely separate from those of the former President, according to a new poll released today by Third Way, a moderate think tank. If in November, voters continue to believe that Republican ideas are new and different from President Bush, the poll shows they could win control of Congress. But the poll also showed a glimmer of light for Democrats, indicating that if they can tie their opponents to Bush's economic ideas, they can win.

According to the survey of 1,100 likely voters (Benenson Strategy Group, June 19-22, 2010), when asked what economic course they thought a Republican Congress would take if they regained the majority, only 25% say "a return to George W. Bush's economic policies." Sixty-five percent say Republicans would promote "a new economic agenda that is different from George W. Bush's policies." Even among Democrats (32%) and self-described liberals (34%), only a minority say Republicans would return to Bushanomics.

Further, the poll finds that the Bush legacy is a difference-maker in this election. When given the choice between a candidate who supports generic conservative economic ideas and one "who will stick with President Obama's economic policies," the conservative candidate wins by 34-points. But in a stunning 49-point swing, the Democrats hold a 15-point advantage when the choice is between a candidate who will stick with Obama and one "who will go back to President Bush's economic policies."

"The November elections could completely turn on whether voters believe that Republican ideas are new or a return to the Bush policies," said Jon Cowan, President of Third Way. "Even in this economic environment, Republicans cannot win if they are associated with the economic policies of the former President."

Indeed, on the question of Bush's economic performance on a variety measures, the former President still receives failing grades. Only 14% approve of his managing the federal budget; the same percentage give him high marks on his handling of Wall Street, and 28% on helping the middle class.

The poll finds mixed views about Democrats. President Obama holds a 53-45% favorable rating, and voters overwhelmingly blame former President Bush for the state of today's economy (53-26%). By a 46-32% margin, voters believe that President Obama's economic ideas for the country are better than former President Bush's (among Independents, the margin is 39-30%).

However, Republicans hold a 3-point edge in the generic congressional ballot. Voters are extremely deficit-sensitive right now, and by a 13-point margin say that Republicans are more serious about fiscal responsibility.

Finally, the poll finds that voters strongly believe that the private sector, not government, will lead the nation toward recovery. They also are skeptical about Democrats and the private sector, fingering them as "anti-business."

"The central challenge for Republicans heading into November is to shed the Bush economic legacy, and so far they are doing that," said Cowan. "Democrats have to show they have a plan for private sector-led economic growth, and they must tie Republicans to Bush. There is still time to make that case, but it is running short."