"But I think that if the Republicans take control of Congress this fall, Obama will be officially defeated in 2012, along with Republicans retaining control of Congress, because of the factors we've already cited ............"

But Genie - First, its not clear that repub gains will take place this year. Yea, it looks likely, but November is still a long ways away. Also, 2012 is an eternity away, politically speaking. A more likely scenario would be another dem (Hilary) challenging Obama for the (re)nomination, so the 2012 election would likely be between two people not on the radar screen today.

But just for a thought experiment..........Hilary Clinton vs. Sarah Palin? Hope I live long enough to enjoy the comments here if that were to happen!   But hey - either way we get our first female president!