That depends.

It seems that the US economy is not improving very quickly at all--to say the least. I've read the Fed is predicting about 9% unemployment at the end of 2011.    And even when a worker manages to find another job, it often is a service-sector job, paying worse than his or her old job.

And it's obvious that the gridlock we have now will, if anything, be worse in the next Congress.

So it appears that the electorate may well be just about as angry in 2012 as they are now.


That being the case, the stage could be set for President Obama to do a Truman 1948--but only if the new Congress is solidly Republican.    So, ironically, it may well be that his best chance for re-election is that the Republicans take both the House and Senate in 2010.

It's a foregone conclusion that nothing will be done by the next Congress--it will be hyper-partisan and rather evenly split.    So if it is officially a Republican Congress (Republican majorities in both Houses), Obama can run against a classic "do-nothing Congress"--thus, finally, getting on the right side of an electorate which otherwise is likely to be howling for his head, and those of other Democrats.

Comments?