Thing is that you can't really make predictions based on what has gone before because there is an unnown number of people who might have voted for other parties, but didn't because they felt there was no point and that it would be a waste of a vote which ultimately might allow the party they hate the most into power.

If you have the option of putting your 'tactical' party as your second choice, it means you have an insurance policy that allows you to vote for the party that represents you without fear of opening a door for the party you hate the most by splitting the vote against them.

I think there are very large numbers of people who would choose the greens as their first choice who wouldn't dare vote green under first past the post.

I also think its right that the winning candidate should have a majority of over 50%.

Party 3 are out - its between party 2 and Party 3 - which of the remaining candidates would the people prefer?

It may not be PR, but it is MUCH better than first past the post.