One thing I have noticed. It is likely that this song was written in 1938 because it is impossible for it to have been Carnival Road March in 1938 if it was written in 1939. If it was written in 1940 it is unlikely to have been Carnival Road March the previous two years. Grishka, I get what you're saying, but is there a way to get confirmation of these facts as related in the song: a) that a woman named Matilda stole her lover's money and material possessions, selling the cart and horse, causing a local/nationwide scandal in 1938?
b) she absconded with the stolen property?

BTW, the Duke of Iron also did a cover of this.Link here- Duke of Iron-Matilda:. In one of the verses, he varies the lyrics and implies that Matilda cheated on him with Lord Invader.