Just to throw in a little twist, here's an open question for anybody who agreed with me from the beginning on the cups problem, or was convinced in this thread:

Imagine that you and two other people are thrown in jail and told that one of you (and that one has already been decided by the jailer) will be executed and the other two released. You have no basis for guessing which one of you is doomed, so as far as any of you can tell, it's a random decision.

The next day, one of the other prisoners is released.

Assuming that you only care about yourself, are you relieved, worried, or indifferent about the other prisoner's release?