It's true that there were some actions in the Atlantic that could have been deemed provocations by either the Germans or the Americans before they were at war. One was the sinking of the Reuben James. Another was the "strictly off the record" assistance that some American recon forces gave to the British in the spring of 1941 to help them find the escaped battleship Bismark while it was briefly on the loose. Quite significant help, that was. Some other incidents might just as well have happened by accident as by design. It's not always that easy to figure out whether it's an enemy ship or a neutral ship that you're spotting through a periscope, specially when you don't have much time to figure it out.

Yeah, I think the Japanese were bound to lose in the end, barring a complete German victory in Russia. And maybe even then.

The Japanese had never lost a war in modern times, and had won an absolutely lopsided victory over imperial Russia in 1905. This may well have contributed to their delusions of being invincible. They seemed to believe that sufficient patriotism and self-sacrifice could overcome anything...but so did Hitler. What such people forget is that the other side is also patriotic, brave, and willing to sacrifice. Nobody has a monopoly on such virtues. Given 2 sets of patriotic, brave, and self-sacrificing people, those with more money, men, and weapons will win in the long run.