The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796   Message #3427792
Posted By: Nigel Parsons
29-Oct-12 - 11:32 AM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
I don't see that the news that door X was a goat is really "new." You knew when you got into this that 2 of the 3 doors had goats. Now you see where one goat was. You still don't know where the car is, or the other goat. You have two doors.

That information is new. You previously new only that the car was behind one of 3 doors. You now know that it is behind one of 2.
Before you made your decision you had a one in 3 chance of picking the car.

The removal of one door and one goat means that you now only have to choose between two doors. But you know (from the first choice) that your first door has a 1/3 chance of hiding the car, so you accept the swap for a 2/3 chance.

Monty Schrödinger's Goat
At the start of this act, behind each of three doors is one third of a car, and two thirds of a goat (or one third of two goats). The compere asks you to choose a door ...