The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796   Message #3427896
Posted By: GUEST,Lighter
29-Oct-12 - 03:36 PM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Ed, sorry for the confusion. The W. article is very dense. Stipulating that Monty always knows where the car is changes everything in a way that really is easy to understand.

I used to watch the show in the '60s. It appeared that Monty didn't know (as I posted earlier), or at least pretended not to know, and the contestants assumed he didn't know either. Or at least had no way of knowing for sure.

I believe he would sometimes open a door and the car would be behind it, without opening a goat door. Probably he knew some of the time - or all of the time, but the contestants didn't know whether he did or not. That was part of the fun.

Sure, if he knows, and you know he knows, then obviously if he leaves door No. 17 shut, out of a million, it's pretty suspicious, and that door, selected with insider information, is far more likely to hide the car than your own blindly selected door which would hide the car by pure chance alone.

And I hope you're saying that if Monty doesn't know the whereabouts of the car, the 1 in 2 analysis at the crisis point is correct, whether there were a million doors or three.