You've got it, Jack. I don't think it's much of a mystery as to how things will turn out..

"Argo" is a "feel good" movie about the CIA. "Zero Dark Thirty" is a "feel not so good" movie about the CIA, and, as you say, Kathryn Bigelow and Co. already have a stack of Oscars for a pretty similar movie. "Django Unchained" is a Quentin Tarrantino satire of a spaghetti western,(that's three strikes right there) "Life of Pi" and "Amour" are, more or less, foreign films, and they gave an Oscar to one of them last year.

"Beasts of the Southern Wild" is quirkly and arty, and that, too, is "last year". It's big budget, top grossing blockbusters this year. "Les Miserables" is on the list to remind everyone that, "Hey, we still make musicals for a mainstream audience(as opposed to "The Ghastly Love of Johnny X", which was a musical for about 8 people). "Silver Linings Playbook" isn't violent enough,

"Lincoln" is a Spielberg movie at it's best--it tells us everything we want to think about ourselves without making it seem too obvious--slavery was bad and needed to be abolished, politics is a dirty business, and in the end, no matter how tight it looks, the good guys win, albeit at a terrible cost.

And how about that Lincoln? A great story teller, like Will Rogers, without the rope tricks, clever and insightful, like Mark Twain in a black suit, and wise, like Gandalf, but with a stovepipe hat.

And the envelope, please...