2:45 AM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEW BRUNSWICK
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

For tropical storm Arthur.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

Tropical storm Arthur to merge with a cold front late this week while moving toward Atlantic Canada. Arthur will likely affect the weather to parts of Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.

Location: 30.9 north 79.1 west.

About 250 kilometres east of Jacksonville.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hour.

Present movement: north near 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 988 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The tropical storm is expected to intensify to hurricane strength later this morning as it moves slowly northeastward not far off the U.S. East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward from the Great Lakes, guiding Arthur toward Atlantic Canada. The nature of the trough approaching from the Great Lakes will make all the difference in Arthur's intensity, track and structure as it moves toward our region.

As usual, the track map forecast implies detailed location and storm intensity however there is still considerable uncertainty. The forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the west since the track model guidance this morning indicates a track slightly farther west.

A. Wind.

Significant wind is possible for portions of Atlantic Canada this weekend especially for regions to the south and east of the storm track. However, due to uncertainty in the storm track, it is too early to confidently say where in Atlantic Canada the strongest winds will be.

B. Rainfall.

Significant rainfall amounts are likely for parts of Atlantic Canada on the weekend. Details in the nature of the interaction of the cold front with Arthur as well as the exact track of Arthur will determine where the highest rainfall amounts will occur.

C. Surge/waves.

Significant storm surge and waves is possible with Arthur especially for regions south and east of the storm track. Details as to the exact location of where the biggest impact from surge and waves will occur will become clearer in the next two days.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Mariners (Rap) should remain on alert and stay tuned for forecast updates.