HiLo's contributions add more to the discussion than your pin head dancing Gnome. It would appear that in terms of this discussion one side would appear to need to up the factual content of their game and provide substantiation for their views and that in his/her opinion that side is not the side Keith A or myself are arguing.

Getting back to speculation and informed assessment If A stands on the bank of a river, should he fall in he might drown, he might not, but as he doesn't fall in, whether he may have drowned or not is pure speculation for someone who knows nothing about A. If on the other hand someone did know that A was an extremely good swimmer and supremely confident in the water then it would be an educated and informed assessment that had A fallen in the river then A would have survived. Further factors could be added to this for someone who knows the river and the location along its banks where A was standing. In exactly the same way you in your own self-confessed ignorance might speculate about the situation, circumstances and factors pertaining to Europe in the summer of 1914 and state that nobody could know with any certainty what would have happened, others fully up to speed with the information available could with regard to how various courses of action would affect them. That is after all how any decision is made Gnome - carry on dancing.