At the same time, by mid-1914, the Ulster leaders (Carson apart) had moved perceptibly towards demanding a way out for Ulster rather than an end to Home Rule for all Ireland. Politicians on both sides are on record as thinking even by late 1913 that county option, especially for the intricate cases of Fermanagh and Tyrone, would be so reasonable a solution that they would not dare to oppose it; therefore, they hoped the other side would continue to indulge in extravagant demands. Saving political face often appeared more important than hammering out a solution on its merits. By 1914 Bonar Law was still considering using the House of Lords to amend the Army Bill to save Ulster from 'coercion', and then provoke a first-rate constitutional crisis. But on more realistic levels, a six-county Ulster excluded from Home Rule was more and more clearly envisaged - though even this included areas of knife-edge majorities.
The Home Rule Bill as passed in May 1914 allowed opting out on a county basis for six years only; the Lords amended it to the exclusion of nine counties, for ever. A conference at Buckingham Palace, convened in July to work out an exclusion formula, brought the impasse no nearer resolution. The bill was placed on the statute book with the exclusion amendment left in suspension; while Asquith was seen by Unionist opinion as utterly unprincipled, for having forced through any measure of Home Rule at all. 'He has behaved like a cardsharper and should never be received into a gentleman's house again.'7 None the less, Partition had been, in principle, secured. As Michael Laffan has percipiently remarked, 'if war had not broken out and if Carson had led a rebellion in August or September 1914 his aim would not have been to preserve Antrim, Down, Derry and Armagh, for their exclusion had already been conceded. It would have been to impose exclusion on Fermanagh, Tyrone and Derry City where Home Rule was desired by small but clear majorities' - a much less tenable endeavour.8 Like Asquith, he was saved from the logic of his position by the guns of August.
From - Modern Ireland 1600-1972 R. F. Foster 1988
Jim Carroll