The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #166646   Message #4016156
Posted By: Iains
30-Oct-19 - 07:12 AM
Thread Name: BS: climate crisis - how do we go from here?
Subject: RE: climate crisis - how do we go from here?
You quote the IPCC as saying the rate of SL rise has increased. Newlyn does not show that change of rate. It has been attributed to changes in the southern oceans.That is a fact. The explanation is not as clear cut.
Data is interpolated and assumptions made. Theories have been advanced.
They may or may not be true, as I stated with the death statistics above make of it what you will. Even the alternative death statistics forInfdia due to Heatwaves pale into insignificance when contrasted with UK winter deaths. That is a fact.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334975572_Persistent_acceleration_in_global_sea-level_rise_since_the_1960s
The paper above makes a number of assumptions to derive conclusions. I would dispute them.

One very severe hurricane demonstrates very little about climate change. A pattern over several decades of hurricanes increasing in frequency and intensity is relevant. I can't tell you how many people told me during the Beast from the East (a short cold snap in the UK at the end of winter in 2018) that it proved that global warming was rubbish. Matt, it's tedious but necessary to keep on making this very basic point to naysayers who present their facile "arguments." Yes, don't feed the troll.
The World Meteorological Organization stated 2017 The relationship between climate change and the frequency of hurricanes (or tropical cyclones) is still unclear, and is the subject of continued research.

All measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have increased since 1970, although comparably high levels of activity occurred during the 1950s and 1960s, and higher levels of activity were seen in the first decades of the 20th century. Of the 13 strongest recorded hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland, only three have occurred since 1970: Andrew (1992), Charley (2004), and Michael (2018). Four of these 13 hurricanes — including the strongest, the Labor Day hurricane that hit Florida in 1935 — occurred between 1926 and 1935, when sea-surface temperatures were substantially cooler than they’ve been in recent decades. Hence it is difficult to support an argument that man-made climate change, which has been significant only since 1970, is making hurricanes worse.

Predictions of future hurricane activity are even more uncertain. Possible scenarios in which hurricanes could incrementally worsen over the course of the 21st century are described in the WMO Report. But they don’t change the fundamental fact that hurricanes become catastrophes through a combination of large populations, land-use practices and coastal-ecosystem degradation