Here is the result for my ward in 2017
Royston Smith - Con - 21,773 = majority 31
Simon Letts - Lab - 21,742
Eleanor Bell - LD - 1,421
Kim Rose - UKIP - 1,122
Rosie Pearce - Green - 725
Everything is going to hinge on whether the Brexit Party can take more votes from Conservative than the LibDems can from Labour. So I either want LibDem to do spectacularly well to increase their votes nearly twentyfold - I think we can agree that looks unlikely - or do far worse then the Brexit Party.
National polls will not greatly influence my voting decision.