We know that the people of Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly to stay in the UK and overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. Anything beyond that is speculation, whoever says it.

Any international treaty can be rescinded if the parties involved agree. So there are only really two fundamental questions:

1. Is the EU solidarity with Spain sufficient it will move to a no deal if it comes to it?

2. Is the UK desire for a deal greater than its desire to retain Gibraltar?

I do not know the answer to either question and nor, at this stage, does anyone else. What I am certain of is that those are the questions that matter, and not what was written some three centuries ago in a treaty.