The secret to peer into the future is to scrutinize the past.

In 1919-1920 people grew weary and stopped the very same social distancing measures we use today. As a result when the second wave arrived it was more catastrophic than it needed to be. And again with the 3rd wave.

Their past is our future.

Our own collective behavior will exaccerbate the outcome but does not cause the 2nd and 3rd wave.