The secret to peer into the future is to scrutinize the past.

Usually. But it relies on people looking for the similarities. As I find when drawing analogies in discussions like in this parish. Similarities are ignored or denigrated by comments that show the differences and by implication the analogy is dismissed.

History is an analogy for the future. It is different now, we know more (aka more intelligent?????) now.

If we are more intelligent - we will see the similarities as warnings and differences as boundaries/borders to the similarities.

FWIW History can show there danger of a second wave of epidemic, as we relax. I fear, not predict.