The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #167497   Message #4043569
Posted By: Iains
01-Apr-20 - 09:52 AM
Thread Name: BS: UK politics. Last ditch attempt
Subject: RE: BS: UK politics. Last ditch attempt
We are not going to know who adopted the best tactics to minmise fatalities from this virus until long after the event. We do not know how many are infected,,who actually died from the virus directly ot even how effective testing is. We are likely still several weeks away from peak levels. The population density in London will pose special problems

                  positive               Deaths
Italy                  105,792               12,428                          
Spain                95,923                 8,464         
Germany          71,808                 775                 
France                52,128                 3,523         
UK                   25,150                 2.352                 
Switzerland      16,605                 433         
Belgium          12,775                 705                 
Netherlands    12,595                 1,039                 
Austria            10,298                  128

It is rate of hospitalisation and demand for intensive care versus the beds available that will influence final outcomes. The death rate will continue to rise until the lockdown takes effect. The common flu kills 14000 every year in the UK. This is a new virus with an unknown mortality rate. We will be lucky if it is less than 0.1%.
The virulence may reduceas the dayswarm, it could mutate to a renewed virulence come the autumn. There are simply too many unknowns at present and the mainstream media merely muddy the waters in search of cheap sensationalism. The UK was thought to be better prepared than most countries for a pandemic. Tiime will tell.