There seems to be an alarming and very dangerous situation building in that region. Belarus troops are breaking down the razor wire barrier at the Polish border and hassling (willing) refugees to pass through. Those refugees have been actively encouraged to enter Belarus then bussed to the Polish border, a retaliation for EU sanctions. Belarus is closely aligned with Russia, and there's little doubt that Putin is egging Lukashenko on. Russian troops are massing on the Ukraine border, which looks like a threat to invade. Ukraine, unlike Crimea a few years ago, is not aligned with Russia and wants to join the EU. That is the very opposite of what Putin wants, and what Putin wants Putin will very likely get. There's plenty of scope for serious escalation...