I cannot really imagine how blowing up buildings and killing people in Iraq is going to do anything whatsoever to reduce the possibility of a biological attack on the USA or the UK. I can imagine how it might have the reverse effect. (McGrath)

I really do wonder how you can be so sure of your position without the slightest hint of doubt (the same is true of many others in this discussion).

You cannot imagine one scenario, but you can imagine the other?? I can easily imagine both possibilities and my problem in deciding a course of action I wish for is that I don't know which is more probable. I wouldn't have the slightest difficulties with a position stating that you think the one outcome is more likely than the other and therefore...

But this overconfidence in one of several possible outcomes is something I am afraid of in politicians. I think you make a quite similar mistake.

Wolfgang