The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #52587   Message #813600
Posted By: NicoleC
29-Oct-02 - 11:07 AM
Thread Name: BS: N. Korea may have the big bomb!
Subject: RE: BS: N. Korea may have the big bomb!
Troll, a single county does not and absolutely cannot sway a vote, only whole state results can. (I wish it weren't true, but that's the Electoral College for you.) If you look at state results, the only thing that CAN, there are just a few states where it was possible. Iowa, off the top of my head, a couple of others. Florida was one of them, too.

I think it's great that Nader took 80% of your county. But he only took 2% of Florida. Since the other vote was 49% to 49%, Florida is a state where Nader could have swung the vote. But when you look at the whole US picture, it doesn't add up. Heck, Hagelin got 2300 votes in Florida. Let's blame the election on HIM!

It's not logical to model a theoretically election on removing only one 3rd party candidate, but not the others. Many Nader votes would have gone to Gore, true, but many wouldn't have voted and some would have even gone to Hagelin. Then there's the margin for error -- would the vote have been easier to read? Then more votes could have gone to Bush OR Gore. While it may be a true premise in particular places, like your county, no statistician worth their salt would assume 100% of any set of votes.

The 2000 election was an odd case. It was more of a study in what happens when you have two thoroughly bland candidates than what happens when you have a slightly interesting 3rd party candidate around.

1992 is a better study of 3rd party candidate swing -- like here, for example:
Case Study: The 1992 US Presidential Election