Bagpuss,

The weapons inspection teams were in Iraq for 7 of the 12 years, and in that time they were given a "right-royal-run-around".

Saddam and his Ba'athist buddies on the other hand HAVE HAD 12 years to comply with the terms of the United Nations Security Council Resolutions that they accepted and agreed to in order to stay in power. They haven't done anything about it - nor are they likely to.

Your answers to my questions:

"when Hans Blix has had the few months he states he needs in order to do his job,"

Its not measured in months (few or otherwise) according to Dr. Blix - its years - and that is what Saddam is counting on - he's had five glorious trouble free years to hide this stuff - inspectors are not going to find it.

So your:

".. and in those months we find concrete evidence active chemical/biological weapons programmes which Saddam refuses to destroy...."

That is about as likely to happen as "Shergar" being favourite in the next Grand National, with Lord Lucan mounted.

I think that the up-shot will be that Dr. Blix will eventually come back to the UN Security Council and admit that he cannot with any certainty issue a report declaring that Saddam Hussein and the Ba'athist regime in power in Iraq have disarmed in accordance with UNSC Resolutions.

The Security Council of the United Nations will then debate the issue - Saddam will in all probability be given the benefit of the doubt - in order that the United Nations can save face. Then UN sanctions will be lifted - there would be no justifiable reason for maintaining them.

After a sort of honey-moon period - it will be back to business as usual with Iraq, France, Russia and China. About five to ten years down the track - there will be a war - and one that is extremely costly - I only hope then that we have the good sense to stay out of it.