BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes

Subject: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 26 Mar 15 - 05:11 PM

Could Syrian and Yemen air strikes help Assad, al-queda and Irans influence, versus the intended results?

Syrian air strikes 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 26 Mar 15 - 05:19 PM

Or, is the Mudcat BS mood too tense (or, bland) for such a potentially heated topic?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: pdq
Date: 26 Mar 15 - 05:38 PM

"...versus the intended results?"


How could you possibly know the intended results?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 26 Mar 15 - 07:04 PM

I suspect those dropping the bombs have a concept of what result they want-if this is your "intended" meaning in post #3?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Teribus
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 03:41 AM

The "model" being followed Ed T is the one that in 71 days ended the seven year fight between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. That particular scrap, between October and December 2001, involved ~35,000 men of the Northern Alliance, ~1,200 US Special Advisors and ~60 Combat aircraft from two USN Aircraft Carriers operating in the Arabian Sea.

Iraq:
IS, formerly Al-Qaeda-In-Iraq (AQI) have been defeated before in Iraq (between 2003 and 2008). In 2008 Ayman al-Zawahiri declared that they (Al-Qaeda) had lost in Iraq because of the strategy adopted by AQI i.e. attacking Shia Muslims instead of attacking US/MNF/Iraqi troops, AQI's behaviour in Central, Western and Northern Iraq made it easier to convince native Iraqi Sunni Arabs to turn against them, and that is precisely what happened. Last November there were people on this forum steadfastly predicting that within weeks IS would be in Baghdad. Their apparent successes in Iraq stemmed from the sectarian incompetence of Nouri Al-Maliki. It has taken roughly five months and a change of leadership in Iraq to mobilise troops to take on IS, but that is what is happening now and the major Sunni Arab tribes in Anbar are now, once again, fighting on the Iraqi Government side. Kurdish Peshmurga Militia Forces are taking ground from IS in Syria and in Iraq. IS are finding that in occupying towns and declaring their "Caliphate" when confronted they have to defend their territory or lose "face", credibility and more importantly revenue. The result of the air strikes and drone attacks? You don't see IS now driving about in convoys of black flagged "technicals" and parading captured armour - if they do that they are now swiftly targeted and attacked. IS Forces in Tikrit are now cut off and they will be destroyed there, then Iraqi Government forces and allied militias will move North to Mosul and the same thing will happen there. IS will be squeezed out of Iraq and back over the border into Syria.

Syria
Assad is fighting at least eight different rebel factions, who in turn are fighting among themselves. The air campaign against IS is less intense in Syria, but it was effective enough at Kobane, in northern Syria, earlier in the year and IS's revenue streams have been hit by attacks on IS held refineries.

Yemen
Saudi Arabia is now getting involved in the civil unrest there and as none of the insurgent groups have any air defence capability the territory they have taken so swiftly will have to be relinquished as those tribal militias drift back to their own areas to protect them.

Libya
Factions declaring loyalty to IS are located in the eastern part of Libya where they have attracted the attention of Egyptian forces

Northern Nigeria
Boko Haram have allied themselves to IS recently, but finally Government forces from Niger, Cameroon, Chad and Nigeria have combined in a co-ordinated and concentrated effort to take on and eliminate Boko Haram and so far they have been remarkably successful.

Afghanistan
In January this year IS set up shop in Afghanistan and were immediately attacked by both ANSF and Taliban forces, they have suffered over 50% killed or captured and their leader in Afghanistan was killed in a drone strike in February. IS are dreaming if they think for one second that they will gain any traction in Afghanistan where they will find themselves facing the Afghan Government forces, the Taliban, Iranian militias and Pakistani forces

Air power is essential, but it can only be effective when used in conjunction with "boots-on-the-ground" and those boots have to be Iraqi/Syrian/Yemeni/Egyptian/Libyan/Nigerian/Afghan - It will take time but IS will be defeated as sure as night follows day because as has been plainly seen IS have got absolutely nothing to offer.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST,#
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 03:55 AM

"Rebel leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi angrily accused the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel of launching a "criminal, unjust, brutal and sinful" campaign aimed at invading and occupying Yemen." (That's from CBC News.)

He makes as much sense as some posters on Mudcat. Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen and Israel and the US get the blame. How fucked up is that?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Teribus
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 04:11 AM

Fear not GUEST,# - Steve Shaw and Jim Carroll will explain it to you.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 04:11 AM

Yemen, Iran and Russia 

Thanks for the good description, Teribus.

Should ISIL, a major opposition force, be weakened in Syria, does that not strengthen the current government's position?

Does a potentially credible government remain in Yemen that could take over, since the houthi have withdrawn its support for the (former) government leader in exile?   Is Saudia Arabia, which must feel threatened from all sides, not making itself a target? If so, what is its military capacity?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 04:14 AM

More information on Yemen:

CNN 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Teribus
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 05:04 AM

Thanks for that link Ed T.

RT - are these f**kers for real Iran, Russia and Hezbollah denounce Saudi intervention in Yemen and call for an immediate halt!!!!

What about Russia's interventions in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and in eastern Ukraine?

What about Iran's state sponsorship of terrorism in Lebanon and in Gaza. What about Iran's intervention in Iraq and meddling in Bahrain.

Hezbollah, an Iranian sponsored and supported terrorist organisation has got no right at all to criticise any country for looking out for its own national interests.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 05:12 AM

""ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan accused Iran on Thursday of trying to dominate the Middle East and said its efforts have begun annoying Ankara, as well as Saudi Arabia and Gulf Arab countries.""



Turkey on Iran 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 05:25 AM

Iran must not be allowed to get nukes.
A nuclear arms race in the Mid East would follow and they would inevitably be used.

They hate each other even more than they hate Israel.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 05:34 AM

""The (Feb. 4th) visit by the chairman of Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee will likely prompt concern in Washington and other major capitals that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have reconfirmed an arrangement whereby Pakistan, if asked, will supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear warheads.""




Saudi-Pakistan relationships 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 07:01 AM

"How Yemen became the front line of a Mideast-wide war"

Yemen 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Jack Campin
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 07:27 AM

Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen and Israel and the US get the blame. How fucked up is that?

It's the US and Israel waging a proxy war against Shiism and against the only intact state where it is the major force in government, Iran.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST,ductape
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 08:33 AM

change.gov/agenda/foreign_policy_agenda

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 08:34 AM

There you have it, simple isn't it.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 11:49 AM

It's the US and Israel waging a proxy war against Shiism and against the only intact state where it is the major force in government, Iran.

What proxy war is that then?
Iran sponsors Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel and defend Assad.
That is not US and Israel waging a proxy war against Iran and Shiism.
It is Iran waging a proxy war against Israel, the Free Syrians, and now the Houthis.

A Shia government was installed in Iraq, so Iran is not "the only intact state where it is the major force in government."

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 12:01 PM

Sorry, that came out wrong.
Obviously Iran sponsors the Houthis to fight their proxy war in Yemen.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 03:43 PM

The comrades have a simple world view - every conflict anywhere in the world is caused by Israel and the imperialistic west. There, simple isn't it, plus it saves wear and tear on the old grey matter.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 04:59 PM

"Warships move in key strait as airstrikes widen in Yemen"

Recent Yemen news 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 05:19 PM

every conflict anywhere in the world is caused by Israel

Nope, nothing like that- just those conflicts that are indeed caused by and supported by the U.S. in the face of rationality and justifiable condemnation by the rest of the world.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 05:42 PM

"every conflict anywhere in the world is caused by Israel"

That is not what was written in the post you are quoting, what it actually said is:

"The comrades have a simple world view - every conflict anywhere in the world is caused by Israel and the imperialistic west"

Which gives it a substantially different meaning from what you posted - but that was your intent, wasn't it?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 07:13 PM

This is farcical. Who's talking to who here?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST,ductape
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 08:28 PM

change.gov/agenda/iraq_agenda/ 

Surging Diplomacy

Barack Obama and Joe Biden will launch an aggressive diplomatic effort to reach a comprehensive compact on the stability of Iraq and the region. This effort will include all of Iraq's neighbors -- including Iran and Syria, as suggested by the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group Report. This compact will aim to secure Iraq's borders; keep neighboring countries from meddling inside Iraq; isolate al Qaeda; support reconciliation among Iraq's sectarian groups; and provide financial support for Iraq's reconstruction and development.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 27 Mar 15 - 09:07 PM

"The U.S.-led coalition engaged in airstrikes against ISIS is locked in a major confrontation with some of its most important de facto allies on the ground.
Iraqi Shia militias, which have borne the brunt of the fighting on the ground against the Sunni jihadists of ISIS in central and western Iraq, say they don't want the coalition's assistance.
Some groups are refusing to continue fighting and one has even threatened to shoot down coalition aircraft."




Iraqi Shia militias refuse to fight with coalition against ISIS 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 28 Mar 15 - 09:16 AM

An interesting interview with Assad, near the end he says:

"Asked about his country's ties with Moscow and the possibility of turning the Tartous facility into a full-fledged Russian military base, Assad said he would "welcome any expansion of the Russian presence in the eastern Mediterranean and specifically on the Syrian shores and in Syrian ports."

Syria's Assad calls chemical attack allegations 'propaganda' 

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 28 Mar 15 - 05:34 PM

"At least 24 civilians were killed in Friday's strikes, bringing the toll from two days to 45 civilians, the Houthi-run Interior Ministry said. The Houthis' TV station showed footage from a market in Saada it said was struck by missiles, with images of charred bodies and wrecked vehicles."

AP


I can't wait to see the thousand posts of outrage about this.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: olddude
Date: 28 Mar 15 - 05:55 PM

I don't care how is those apples

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 28 Mar 15 - 09:11 PM

Those apples is good.

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: GUEST
Date: 28 Mar 15 - 09:17 PM

"ISLAMABAD — Prospects that Pakistan would join the Saudi-led air campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen appeared to be evaporating Friday amid widespread concern that taking sides in what's perceived as a power struggle between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shiite Muslim Iran could fuel Pakistan's already dangerous levels of sectarian violence."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/03/27/261249/pakistani-fears-of-sunni-shiite.html#storylink=cpy

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Mar 15 - 05:04 AM

And your opinion is...?

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: olddude
Date: 29 Mar 15 - 10:26 AM

I like apple pie

Subject: RE: BS: Syrian and Yemen air strikes
From: Ed T
Date: 29 Mar 15 - 10:30 AM

I suspect apples don't grow too well in the hot sand.

Its more like a bumbleberry or mince pie.