BS: UK General Election

Subject: BS: UK General Election
From: Stu
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 07:12 AM

Here we go again. Now we have six weeks of campaigning before we have another general election, which is going to centre around Brexit. This is a huge vote and massively important for the UK and beyond.

Please keep discussion civil.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Allan Conn
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 07:30 AM

I was thinking will they stop campaigning for the forthoming local elections now? However to tell you the truth there is no local campaigining going on here in Scotland anyway. Certainly not from the Tories. The only leaflets I've got through from them mention no local issues and no local candidates. Only the constitution!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 08:47 AM

Quite interesting.
At least the campaigning will be very limited in timescale.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 08:56 AM

7 weeks and 2 days.................. thankfully I will be away for most of it.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 09:03 AM

Live bbc news lunch time.... was that May's resignation speech...???

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 09:23 AM

I've nothing against lengthy campaigns - there's more chance the mask will slip and the lies be revealed.

I always try to work out some way in which, win or lose, there's some positive outcome. A Labour victory seems a remote hope, but it's possible to envisage that the focus of an election might stop the squabbling and backstabbing in the Labour camp, and they get together and pull off a 1945 victory, which nobody then believed possible.

A Tory victory, and a big Tory victory, is harder to see in a positive way - but it could at least increase the chances that when the Scots have another vote on independence they will go for it. I think that once it sinks in that the Conservatives have brought about the end of the United Kingdom and "Great Britain" that might bring about a wide revulsion against them on the part of the English voters.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 09:33 AM

There was a brilliant article in the Irish Times last week describing the Brexit negotiations as a "an exercise in damage limitation".
I wonder if this is part of it
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 10:30 AM

i used to love elections when i was a kid. we got a day off school. in fact we were threatened with violence if we came to school by mistake on that day.

since then, i haven't enjoyed them much.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 10:48 AM

As she has an overall majority, the only conceivable reason for this abject U-turn is that she's running scared of her hard-right backbenchers and is hoping for a bigger majority that will leave her untrammelled. As Labour were doomed to lose the 2020 election in any case, the upside is that she may be in power until 2022 only, not until 2025. Organise!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 10:48 AM

Labour have lost my vote by not opposing article 50. I will be voting Lib Dem, if I thought it didn't matter I would vote for Left Unity. But it does, and the Lib Dems are the only English party with a coherent European policy.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 11:10 AM

until the tories offer them a deal.
10 quid, a giant bag of crisps and Tim Farron as Minister for Bananas...

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Mr Red
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 12:25 PM

As I remember, when UK referenda were merely mooted, it was said that they made France ungovernable. Not quite here (yet) but the pattern is remarkably reminiscent.
Maybe PM TM is banking on getting in quick, before JC can be shown to be Michael Foot Mk2 and TM knows we are heading for serious heartache over trade, and she needs 5 more years to prove herself & the economy.

Time will tell, let us hope it doesn't shout!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 01:08 PM

In this area last time, Conservatives won by a few thousand over Labour, then roughly one third of those totals for UKIP and one tenth as many voted Green, then Lib Dem.

So if Labour were to take any significant numbers of seats, this would be one. They are unlikely to, and there isnt a viable tactical option. Oh joy.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 01:20 PM

I just hope that brexit fails and we stay in the EU!!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Gutcher
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 01:22 PM

Strange, here was me thinking we were now on a five year fixed term, with only a defeat for the sitting government allowing any deviation from that legislation.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: DMcG
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 01:32 PM

The election can only proceed if enough MPs agree; it os not a simple majority like most votes. I did wonder if the SNP would try to lever another concession as payment for their support but i think they have calculated the risk is too great as they still cpuld no stop it on their own.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Teribus
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 03:01 PM

The forthcoming General Election will sort out Tory Brexit rebels and give TM a mandate her opponents accuse her of not having at the moment.

JC and Labour will be shown to be the shambles they undoubtedly are and oddly enough the SNP North of the border will be in for a tougher ride than they think - the SNP might want to squander another £13 million Scotland doesn't have on Indy2 - the bulk of the Scottish electorate want no part of it. As for "Scottish issues" the SNP are going to have to start actually governing Scotland in stead of just sitting back and blaming Westminster s every Scottish Parliament has done since 1998.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 03:11 PM

I think that may turn out to be a pretty fair summation of whats afoot. But who knows...I've stopped predicting since the referendum. Lots can happen. i don't think its worth arguing about, because its SO unknown.

No one really KNOWS whats going to happen.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 03:44 PM

Absolutely correct, Teribus! She's called this election, in spite of promising not to, and in spite of the fact that she has an overall majority, in order to get a bigger majority so as to sideline her own scumbag rebels. This is not in the country's best interests, it's an abuse, and let's hope that that point is forcefully put across by all the opposition parties so that the electorate see that they are being used. She's weak, she acts with expedience instead of principle and she's a liability to this country.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 05:02 PM

Another broken promise. Are we surprised? Remember David Cameron promised that even if he lost the referendum he would stay on and carry out its verdict? Everyone know what a Liberal pledge is worth. (Remember, voting for tuition fees to go sky high wasn't just a manifesto pledge, only operative if they won a majority, it was an individual solemn promise by Liberal candidates to vote against any such measure.)

Just about the only person in front bench politics whose word is actually worth anything is Jeremy Corbyn, and he gets crucified and ridiculed for it, because that's not how we play politics in this country. Who knows, there might be more people out there than you'd think who are fed up enough with liars they might actually choose to vote for the only honest man in the game?

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 05:10 PM

my bet is that time she did the trick with the Mars bar when she was having an affair with Michael Gove could lead to her undoing, and the secret liaision with Fred West might count against her with some. otherwise, she's bulletproof.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 05:37 PM

But that's politics innit!!! It has happened before and it will happen again. Take Harold Wilson for instance in 1966, who won an increased majority in a snap election, but then take bugger Brown who failed to call a snap election in 2007!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Allan Conn
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 05:51 PM

The SNP will probably privately be quite happy to go to the polls. Even if unionist parties did win several more seats - which is not a given - it is still likely to be an a ringing endorsement for the SNP with them winning the vast bulk of the seats. The idea that the bulk of Scots don't want another vote doesn't hold up. Most polls have showed it as about 50/50 as to whether there should be another vote or not.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: akenaton
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 05:54 PM

I think that Mrs May is the real deal, she has gravitas and a good political mind.
I said a couple of years a go that she would be the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The most important thing for me at the moment (even more important than Scottish Independence), is extricating this country from the undemocratic shambles that is the EU. Immigration control was the main driver for Brexit and there is no point in remoaners whining about the Free Market etc as Without Free Movement of Labour these things are impossible to obtain.
The Remoaners inside and outside parliament are simply trying to sabotage the referendum result. Mrs May thinks that the only way to shut them up is to obtain a large mandate from the electorate. There are risks involved, risks she did not have to take, she could have pressed on and followed through on the aftermath of winning the section 50 vote.......but I think there may be some skulduggery going on amongst the remoamers and their Blairite fellow travellers in the House of Lords which Mrs May is attempting to head off.

Anyway, this Scottish Socialist will be voting for Teresa and the Conservative Party for the first time in his life.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 05:58 PM

One thing's sure. Seven weeks is a long time in politics. And you can't trust polls. That's two things, but I never was much good at maths.

Naturally, no opposition party can say that they don't want an election. They don't though.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 06:26 PM

In her Downing Street address, May blamed Labour, the LibDems, the SNP and the House of Lords for forcing her hand in calling this election. All completely dishonest bullshit. With regard to the three parties, she has an overall majority and they can't prevail against her. With regard to the Lords there is the Parliament Act, and, ultimately, they can't prevail against her either. Her only fear is her own party. A few hard-right backbench rebels can call the shots and she knows it. A healthier majority will sideline them. That's what this is all about. It's not about brexit and it's not about the mainstream issues that should be to the fore when we talk about how the country should be run, which is what a general election should be all about. She's calling an election in order to try to sort out her own party issues, just as Teribus has correctly suggested. That is just wrong. It's a waste of time, a waste of our money and it's bloody undemocratic. The upside is that it means she'll probably be in power only until 2022, not 2025.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Stanron
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 06:29 PM

Steve Shaw wrote: The upside is that it means she'll probably be in power only until 2022, not 2025.

Dream on.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 07:28 PM

You do surprise me aken...

But I rather doubt that many Scots will be doing that. And in a few years when no one is going to be using the term "Great Britain" as if if was the name of a country rather than an island (which hasn't been the case since 1801), and you're back in the EU, I hope you'll have changed your mind about such things.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 07:48 PM

I'm not a betting man.. never been in a bookies in my entire life..

but now an election is being called,
who's more likely to get stabbed in the back first by their own party..

May or Corbyn.....????

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 08:03 PM

Well, Stanron, as you're a hard-right Tory I'd expect that hubris from you. My view is that Labour would have lost a 2020 election, and that would have put this dissembling bugger into power until 2025. As it is, she'll have to contest an election in 2022, just a couple of years after the brexit disaster has manifested itself to the electorate. That's when she'll hit well-deserved oblivion. Only a prediction, of course. And a kind one. Some would say I've been far too generous in allowing her that long. She is very weak and vacillating and she's in the pocket of her own hard right. She's trying to fix that with this election. It won't work. It never does for Tories. Typical bloody manipulating, disreputable, self-serving Tory.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Stanron
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 08:33 PM

Steve Shaw wrote: Typical bloody manipulating, disreputable, self-serving Tory.

One could reply with;

Spoken like a typically abusive, dissembling, dishonest, self-deceiving lefty.

But, of course, I'm too polite.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Apr 17 - 08:46 PM

No you're not and never have been. You're a sour, rude fellow of the right. Still, it's all just predictions at this stage. Nighty night. Don't let those Monday-Clubber mates of yours bite.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Kampervan
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 02:42 AM

I don't care how 'wounded' JC is, having seen at first hand what TM is doing to the health service, to education and to the disabled, there is no way that I could ever vote for the Tories. Just because JC isn't perfect is no reason to vote for the vicious, divisive policies of the Tories.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Stu
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 03:18 AM

"You're a sour, rude fellow of the right"

"Spoken like a typically abusive, dissembling, dishonest, self-deceiving lefty."

"Typical bloody manipulating, disreputable, self-serving Tory."

Pack it in. Please.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: akenaton
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 03:28 AM

Circumstances alter cases Mr McGrath, I change my mind quite often, finding pragmatism can be helpful in viewing the political world.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 03:42 AM

Ake, you are not and never have been a socialist. As far back in time as you can read them on this forum, your comments have always has a far right slant. Now you may be a trade unionist. But the unions do not always have a left perspective, think of the US teamsters. Think of the attitudes of the unions in the times of Mosley and Powell. You are no more a socialist that the trade unionists who marched with Mosley.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 03:46 AM

i agree. don't lets get into bitter abuse of each other.

Jeremy Corbyn isn't being derided for being a decent chap, which we all agree - he is. People distrust him because they don't KNOW where he stands on brexit. plus with someone as nutty and unpredictable in the White House - is this the time to chuck out an independent nuclear deterrent. The Yanks are great people but they have a tendency to leave us high and dry as in 1939 and at the time of Suez. WE can't help the fact that this country has a history and many many enemies. Ignore it at your peril. most people don't - and as with Kinnock and Foot before - this alone will send Corbyn unlamented to the bottom of the ocean. his call and he blew it!

I think Ake is right on this point - a lot of labour voters will vote tory. bad news for the nhs and much else.

as usual i will vote labour with a heavy heart - but that's how it is!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Allan Conn
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 03:58 AM

Re McGrath's surprise at Ake changing his mind - there has been some folks changing stance. People voted either Yes or No at the last Indy vote but it doesn't mean they are defined by that. It is not always their number one issue. There are a hard core of both Yes and No voters who's minds would never be changed but a lot of folk have a softer view on the debate. That is they are open to change. I've not personally come across anyone here in Kelso who has gone from Yes to No because of the SNP's stance on the EU but they do exist in Scotland and obviously Ake could be one of them. It goes the other way too though. I know two people personally who were both quite avid No voters in the Indy referendum. Both Labour voters and spoke out against the Yes campaign. Both are now openly saying they support independence and one who is an English born lady in her 60s who has been a member of Labour all her adult life is now saying she will vote for the sitting SNP member in the GE. I'm not sure how it will go in Scotland. The three unionist seats are all in the top five at risk seats in Scotland - however I imagine the SNP will maybe be a wee bit short of the 50% of the vote they got last time. I imagine they are still likely to be well over the 40% and maybe over 45%. Most of their seats have pretty solid majorities. So possibly the Tories might pick up several seats - but even having say 5 or 6 out of the 59 Scottish seats would make it hard for Ruth Davidson to back up her claims that everyone is sick of the SNP and no-one in Scotland wants another vote.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 03:58 AM

I'm sorry, but "in your dreams" isn't a debating point. If you want to police the thread, Stu, start with the sour old bugger who made that remark. As for me, I shrug. It's a thread about a controversial issue, not fluffy bunnies (except that I'm in it and I am one). As for this:

"Typical bloody manipulating, disreputable, self-serving Tory."

That's my opinion of her and I've given my reasons for saying it. But if it offends you so, I'll rephrase it. Ahem:

"Typical bloomin' manipulating, disreputable, self-serving Tory."

Sorted!

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Stu
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 04:05 AM

Reasons why May called the election:

1) She has a 20 point lead in the polls.

2) Two dozen tory MPs are under investigation by the CPS over election expenses, and this could force a series of by elections that would deplete her small majority in the commons. This might have been the issue that forced her into a U-turn.

3) Buying time for Brexit; the tories want the mandate for a hard Brexit and free reign over the negotiations without interference from parliament.

4) Labour is an utter shambles and ineffective as an opposition so now's the time to exploit this weakness.

5) Contrary to what May keeps parroting out, the public are far from "coming together" behind her vision of a hard Brexit and she needs to act whilst those against a hard brexet are still unorganised.

6) The LibDems are emerging as the only remain party likely to suggest another referendum to approve the final Brexit deal. Given the 48% need a flag to rally under they could establish both their distance from the tories post-Clegg and their pro-EU credentials. Any momentum they gain in the country would be potentially damaging to the tory hard brexit plans, and so she has to go to the country before the LibDems gather any momentum.

7) At the moment, the non-dom tax-avoiding press barons that won the Brexit vote and last election are still in the ascendancy with their brand of hard right-wing conservatism; they are pushing for a hard brexit and whilst May has their support winning a mandate will be much easier.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Stu
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 04:07 AM

"If you want to police the thread, Stu"

I cannot police this thread.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Iains
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 04:36 AM

"She's called this election, in spite of promising not to, and in spite of the fact that she has an overall majority, in order to get a bigger majority so as to sideline her own scumbag rebels."
With labour nothing but a has been party it would be a stupid, incompetent prime minister that did not call a snap election in the present circumstances.
   The aftermath will be the interesting time. With such a short lead time the 20% that can be assed to vote will have to think for themselves instead of taking their orders from whatever daily comic they read.
Not much time to spin and weave fairy stories this time around.
I anticipate more than a few applecarts being upset, with potential surprises in Scotland. It also gives an excuse to kick brexit a little further down the road.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 05:07 AM

It also gives an excuse to kick brexit a little further down the road.

Not much chance of that. There is a fixed timescale of two years from invoking Article 50.
What it does mean is that the end of the negotiations on Brexit won't take place with a general election looming on the horizon.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 06:26 AM

With labour nothing but a has been party it would be a stupid, incompetent prime minister that did not call a snap election in the present circumstances

That has-been party has to agree to the election in the first place and if it did not believe there was a chance of regaining some lost ground it would not have done so. I don't do predictions but no politician on any side is stupid. Dishonest and self serving maybe but stupid, no. We are in a situation where one side believes in one outcome and one believes in another. Given the inaccuracy of recent polls, anything could happen!

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Teribus
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 07:08 AM

It will be interesting to see the chaos of Labour Party Candidate selection if "Puppet Master" McCluskey wins the UNITE leadership election in 10 days time if he does that'll hammer a few more nails in Labour's coffin. Irrespective of how much Carroll, Corbyn and McCluskey desire it this country is NOT going back to the early 1970s no matter how hard they try.

One thing that will come out up in Scotland will be the track record of Scottish Governments since devolution - mainly characterised by their unwillingness to govern - by June 8th the increases in Council Tax will have started to bite and questions will be asked why the Scottish Parliament has not used the powers it has to help solve specifically Scottish problems - "It's all Westminster's fault" - is now no longer acceptable. MSP were elected and they are paid to govern Scotland, high time they started doing that instead of just posing and playing at it.

Brexit is a reality, nothing is stopping it now that Article 50 has been triggered. The reality for an independent Scotland is that that will not happen until 2021 at the earliest meaning that Scotland will not be in a position to become a member of the EU until 2026 to 2031. I think the EU will have gone through a great deal of change in the next 9 to 14 years.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Stu
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 07:41 AM

"Brexit is a reality, nothing is stopping it now that Article 50 has been triggered."

Quite, but the issue is now whether we have a hard or soft Brexit. Remember about how the Brexiteers banged on about remaining in the single market like Norway etc? Was this just MORE lies? This is still a choice that we have to make as a country, not a choice for those under the control of "puppet masters" Dacre, Murdoch et al with their own agenda's of hatred and division.

Like it or not, we all have a stake in this, and we all still have a say.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 08:08 AM

Every single reason she's given for calling this election is bogus. The opposition parties can't scupper her because she has an overall majority, and the Lords can't scupper her. Brexit is supposedly signed and sealed way before there's an election "looming." This is all about trying to fix her own right-wing, nothing else. A weak party leader in hock to her own hawks. Puppet masters if you like. She'll need a big majority of mostly complicit softies to overcome them. She may not get it, and she hasn't got the charisma to face them down.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 08:28 AM

Guy Verhofstadt summed it up well when he said that in the future people will see Brexit for what is, "a catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand, a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity."

This latest move is just a continuation of that catfight. Hopefully by the end the fat cats will all be hairless, toothless and de-clawed after ripping each other to pieces for so long.

We can but hope.

DtG

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 09:08 AM

Guy Verhofstadt summed it up well when he said that in the future people will see Brexit for what is, "a catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand, a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity."

Clearly he's summed up his view of it.

As an optimist I trust we will look back on it as having been the means to get ourselves free of European dominance, and regain an ability to trade with the rest of the world, including the Commonwealth, under our own terms.

Of course, I don't have Guy Verhofstadt's crystal ball, so cannot say that that is how we will look back on it. From the wording he seems very clear that his view will definitely come to pass. He's possibly as creditable as all those who were predicting dire results for the UK from the date of the referendum, were we to vote to leave.
We did so vote (by a majority of those voting) and the calamities failed to materialise.

Subject: RE: BS: UK General Election
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 19 Apr 17 - 09:10 AM

and the calamities failed to materialise.

Nothing has happened toward Brexit yet! It is the old tale of the man who jumped off the roof and was heard to say when passing the 32nd floor 'so far so good'

:D tG