BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'

Subject: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: paddymac
Date: 23 Apr 02 - 05:23 PM

The British and NI press have been made to look rather gullible over the last week or so, with all the raving headlines and bylines about IRA hit lists and the like. Funally, here's a story from today's Guardian which begins to put things in a clearer light.
___________________________________
Special branch blamed for leaks that damage Sinn Fein
By Nicholas Watt and Rosie Cowan, Tuesday April 23, 2002; The Guardian

Disgruntled special branch officers in Northern Ireland are being blamed by the government for a series of leaks about the IRA which are designed to damage Sinn Fein in the run-up to next month's general election in the Irish republic.

One senior Whitehall source complained yesterday that special branch appeared to be "leaking like a sieve" after details of an IRA intelligence database, containing the names of leading Tories, were passed to the BBC in Northern Ireland.

Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory leader, underlined the party's fears about the new threat yesterday when he met Tony Blair for a confidential briefing on the IRA database which was uncovered by detectives at a house in a republican area of Belfast. The prime minister told Mr Duncan Smith that the list, which contained publicly available material on senior Tories from John Major's government, did not signal that the IRA ceasefire was in danger.

John Reid, the Northern Ireland secretary, said after the talks in Downing Street that the government regarded the discovery of the list as a serious development. But he made clear that ministers are more concerned with how the information has leaked out when he said: "Obviously there have been a series of leaks recently. The motive for them is unclear."

A senior Whitehall source was more forthright about the source of the leak. "Someone is leaking and it looks like special branch," the source said. "It has got worse since Ronnie Flanagan [Northern Ireland's former chief constable] left. He kept a tight lid on special branch. It appears this is being done to damage Sinn Fein in the elections in the south."

Suspicions were raised on Friday when the BBC in Belfast was passed details of the IRA database which was uncovered by detectives during a series of raids in the wake of the break-in at the headquarters of special branch in Belfast. This was followed by another leak to the Sunday Telegraph which alleged that senior IRA commanders bought Russian special forces rifles in Moscow last year. The newspaper said it was passed details by military intelligence in London.

British officials accept that the IRA has tried to rearm in recent years. But they believe that the Sunday Telegraph was provided with exaggerated details in another attempt to damage Sinn Fein.

Republicans blame the leaks on what they term as "securocrats" - disgruntled members of the security forces who want to force Sinn Fein out of government. "We wouldn't use that term, but we appear to be in that area," one official said.

Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein president, and a senior IRA source vehemently denied that republicans were targeting politicians. However, Unionists said that the leak of the IRA database raised questions about its commitment to the peace process. David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist leader, demanded a personal explanation from Mr Adams and Martin McGuinness over allegations of IRA involvement in the raid on special branch headquarters and on the intelligence database.

Under pressure from hard liners in his party, Mr Trimble also tabled a Stormont Assembly motion, calling on Dr Reid to clarify whether the Provisionals' ceasefire is still intact. But he stopped well short of suggesting any immediate sanctions against Sinn Fein, which could threaten the power-sharing executive .

The UUP leader said continuing paramilitary activity would destroy the good effect of the latest IRA decommissioning move and the Sinn Fein leadership must realise it was "hugely in their interests" to close down all IRA operations. But he urged all sides to back his tactics rather than the "kneejerk reaction" of more extreme unionists.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: The Pooka
Date: 23 Apr 02 - 11:35 PM

Verrry interesting, paddymac. Thank you. Sheds light on it.

I must say, albeit somewhat begrudgingly, that it sounds like the nimble Trimble is trying to keep a lid on the situation.

Geez, are they that scared of Sinn Fein winning, what? maybe 2 additional seats in Dail Eireann in the Republic---thus tripling their present bloc of 1 out of 160?

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: Troll
Date: 23 Apr 02 - 11:46 PM

In governments where coalitions are sometimes needed to make a majority, a party with two or three seats can have power out of all proportion to its size. That is certainly the case in Israel.
I am not at all familiar with Irish politics so I don't know if this is true in this particular case. But it is certainly true in other governments.

troll

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: paddymac
Date: 24 Apr 02 - 01:06 AM

I suspect many "establishment types" in NI have seen the future, and are probably scared that they'll either be out of a job, brought to trial (hence the Castlereagh "raid" and cover-up), or be treated similarly to the manner in which they have treated others.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST,Declan
Date: 24 Apr 02 - 12:27 PM

The Progressive Democrat party in the Republic of Ireland have 4-5 seats out of 166 and have been in Government for the last 5 years. A number of independent Deputies have also been supporting the Government for that time - in return for a major say in the amount and nature of Government expenditure in their constituency.

While its entirely possible that Sinn Fein could have 4-5 seats in the next Dail, its unlikely that any of the major parties (Fianna Fail, Fine Gael or Labour) would be willing to have them share power - but it could depend on how the numbers stack up and it looks like it will be very tight. At this stage I expect the next Irish Government to be a Fianna Fail-Labour coalition, but I've often been wrong before.

It is seen by some as hypocritical for the major Irish parties to be ruling out Sinn Fein membership of a coalition government while at the same time urging Mr Trimble to keep them in the NI executive. However the non Sinn Fein politicians draw a distinction between the executive and the sovereign government of the republic. The big distinction here is that the NI executive does not have control over security and military issues. While Sinn Fein claim they recognise the Irish (state) army to be the only legitimate army in the 26 counties, they clearly still have links to another private "army" which is an illegal organisation both in Ireland and the UK.

I welcome the fact that the IRA is still on ceasefire and the major input that the Republican movement has had into the Peace process. They also deserve huge credit for the amount of decommissioning that has already taken place - although the lukewarm Unionist reaction to this goes to prove what we all knew - that it was always a red (orange) herring from the start.

I would personally still be a bit dubious about Sinn Fein being part of an Irish Government before the disbandment of the Provisional IRA (they haven't gone away you know). But its certainly not beyond the bounds of possibilty - and 4 or 5 seats could well be enough if the numbers are right.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST,An Pluiméir Ceolmhar
Date: 24 Apr 02 - 12:39 PM

At least it's progress when the UK intelligence services start breaking into their own barracks rather than facilitating the planting of bombs in the Republic.

I'd be interested to know if cooperation has improved to the point where the SB in the South were in on the joke from the start. The fact that the list was of *Conservative* politicians says it all - they're the only ones likely to have been taken in by the whole charade, which is designed to help the more constitutional parties in the South from being overtaken at the ballot box by the kneecappers.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: The Pooka
Date: 24 Apr 02 - 08:12 PM

Declan, good thorough explanation of the political situation, thanks. / I see by the Irish Times that Bertie is expected to call the election for May 17; maybe he's done it by now. / (I gather the candidates all get nominated *before* the election date is officially set??) Yes, I can see the point on the *big* difference between the Dail and the NI Assembly.

Now here's a purely-political question. I had read quite some time ago, that in addition to retaining its one incumbent Dail member--Cavan/Monaghan TD Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin--Sinn Fein was expected to pick up one seat in Dublin (Southeast, was it? Southwest??), and MAYBE one in North Kerry, though there was quite an effort underway to discredit the SF candidate there, it seemed. OK that would be 3. The Q: where do the additional 1 or 2 come from? to make 4 or 5 and maybe a coalition-tempting bloc. This is a neutral question. I'm a politics junkie. (Though I will say, merely as idle chit-chat, that in his portrait-photo on the SF website, TD Ó Caoláin *looks* somewhat 'divilish', to me...but I'm sure he's a fine public servant, appearances are deceiving :)

SF trumpets that it is contesting every Dublin constituency. So, do they maybe stand to win more than one there? / Well I shall watch with interest.

Now, *here's* another "spin city" development, headlined in today's Irish Times:

"Adams rebuked after refusal to testify in US".

It's about the "Colombian Connection". "href="http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2002/0424/2257654939HM6NIDAN.html">Click here

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: The Pooka
Date: 24 Apr 02 - 08:18 PM

Well obviously I messed up the clickie above -- you get the idea; but I'll try ONCE more (only) -
Click here

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: Paddy Plastique
Date: 25 Apr 02 - 05:46 AM

Pooka,

Louth - for one, and any one of the 3 or 4 constituencies taking in Dublin's badly planned and often disadvantaged sprawl could return a Sinn Féin TD. Dublin North Central also - taking in the North Inner City. With the proportional representation system, parties with a small percentage in the poll often sneak the last seat. It depends on how transfers go - traditionally Sinn Féin haven't picked up too many - may change this time with the changed circumstances.

There are 2 pointers to the power of the what I would call 'Independents for Ballygawleypickmearse' in the last Dáil. That pointless abortion referendum was definitely on their agenda - and also the recent Anti-Traveller law passed in a hurry - which hopefully will be sanctioned in Europe. Both, I strongly suspect, were the result of deals with FF for their support. In the early 80s, 1 TD on his own found himself in a similar position of powerbroker - Tony Gregory. As a result the North Inner City got some nice new housing at a time of alleged austerity. I should say he's a man I respect far more than the current powerbrokers, the same Tony.

I don't know why British 'Intelligence' feel forced to sabotage Sinn Féin... I thought that their utter hypocrisy regarding the 3 blokes arrested in Columbia and especially their wonderfully original approach on the ground to the crime issue did MI5's work for them. Sad to say, but it's the latter, rather than the bigger issues of United Ireland etc. which will win them their votes in and around Dublin

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST,Declan
Date: 25 Apr 02 - 05:50 AM

If there was a relatively small swing to Sinn Fein, coupled with a large protest vote against a lot of the political skullduggery being unearthed at various tribunals over the past few years, it would be possible for them to get a couple of seats in Dublin. Also they might bring in some 'big name' candidates in some marginal seats - although most of the candidates have been selected nominations won't close for at least another week. Also they traditionally do well in border counties, so they could pick up one in say Louth or Donegal. And if the numbers are close they may not even need 4 - one or two could decide it one way or the other.

On the other hand there is a question about whether or not SF would be prepared to enter Govt. O Caolain has chosen to be an independent voice in the Dail, rather than join the ranks of the independents who supported the Government.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: Peter K (Fionn)
Date: 25 Apr 02 - 04:17 PM

Sound stuff, Declan and Paddy P. My guess is that SF is going to be damaged a little by the strong line taken by the American Congress inquiry. This will certainly count for more than the recent spate of leaks - maybe about enough to counteract the effect of all that sleaze coming out in the tribunals. But if France, UK and USA are anything to go by, Apathy will be the runaway winner.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: paddymac
Date: 25 Apr 02 - 06:00 PM

Here's today's piece from the Irish American News Service on yesterday's House Committee meeting (a bit of an embarrassment, it seems), and a bit on the alleged IRA-FARC connection. Is it MI5 or MI6 that does this sort of stuff? I never remember. It does appear, however, that Chairman Hyde won't likely forget giving a party when nobody came (only about 40% of the Committee members bothered to show up). I also wouldn't be overly surprised if there might be some staff changes on the Committee, and if the "trusted sources" are treated less warmly in the future. There are, it seems, many folks interested in derailing the Peace Process AND in diminishing Sinn Fein's electoral propsects on May 17th. Sad, really, when the only other alternative is reciprocal violence. For the moment, at least, it seems to be heavily lop-sided, or even one-sided. ______________

HEARINGS FAIL TO SUBSTANTIATE IRA-COLOMBIA LINK 04/24/02 17:13 EST

There was bipartisan condemnation of what the House International Relations Committee (HIRC) staff members deemed to be evidence of IRA links with international global terrorism and the drug trade, during oversight hearings on Capitol Hill in Washington DC today.

Senior members on both side of the House Committee questioned the validity and basic premise of the hearings, with more than one member wondering aloud whether the hearings were more aimed at further funding US military intervention in Colombia rather than establishing the facts as to why three Irishmen were arrested in Colombia in August of last year.

Democratic Congressman William Delahunt said: "Unfortunately we have been presented with a report short on facts and replete with speculation, and surmise and opinion, much of which I disagree with." "This report," he said, "and other documents have received wide circulation both here and abroad and is quickly being accepted as the position of this committee."

Republican Congressman Chris Smith said he had made widespread inquiries "within our intelligence communities" to determine if there was any evidence whatsoever that Sinn Fein or the IRA "has any knowledge of any kind of complicity in the training with the FARC."

"The answer at this point," he said, "has been that there is no evidence whatsoever."

Describing some seven hearings he held on Irish issues, Rep. Smith contended that there was "volumes of credible evidence" showing members of the British security forces in Northern Ireland engaging in collusion with loyalists and committing criminal acts.

However, comparing today's proceedings with past hearings, he said that the fundamental difference was that the bottom line was a lack of any real evidence to substantiate the claims written by Committee staff members.

"The bottom line to all of this is evidence," said Smith. "The enemies of the peace process are likely to be disappointed in today's hearings because there is no evidence proving any link between Sinn Fein and the IRA and paramilitaries in Colombia."

Facing repeated questioning from Congressman Peter King, witness Asa Hutchinson, representing the Drug Enforcement Agency, admitted that his agency had no information or evidence whatsoever that the IRA was in any was involved in narcotics. This allegation was a central premise of today's hearings.

The chairman of the Committee, Rep. Henry Hyde, opened his remarks noting that he accepted Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams' statement that neither Adams nor anyone else in the Sinn Fein leadership were aware that the three men were traveling to Colombia.

"I accept Mr. Adams' statement at face value and ask that it be included in the record," said Hyde. "At this time, we have no information contradicting this statement," he added.

In his remarks to the Committee, Mark Wong, representing the Bush Administration from the Department of State, emphasized that the Administration's focus "remains on ensuring that there is no current or future cooperation between these two organizations (IRA and FARC)."

In questioning, Mr. Wong acknowledged that the Administration "had no evidence whatsoever" that the IRA had breached the terms of its ceasefire. He said that the intelligence they had was that the IRA's ceasefire was intact.

Wong also stated that the Administration believed that Colombia's judicial process "should be allowed to reach their conclusions unhindered by anything we say here today."

The Commander in Chief of Colombia's armed forces, in his testimony, claimed seven members of the IRA had been helping to train FARC guerillas in his country. General Fernando Tapias told the hearing he did not know if they were acting on their own part or on behalf of the IRA.

He said two of those arrested were in the "upper echelons" of the IRA. When questioned by Congressman Peter King as to why Colombian Intelligence had used, in their submission to today's hearing, the deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, Mr. Peter Robinson, to provide background on one of the three men in Colombia, General Tapias said that this was through their work with British Intelligence.

In the Colombian Intelligence's submission for today's hearing, it stated that Mr. Robinson considered James Monaghan "as the most important man in the IRA."

Mr. King asked General Tapias if he was aware that Mr. Robinson was a political adversary of Sinn Fein, was avowedly anti-Good Friday Agreement, and had an arrest record in Northern Ireland. The General responded that he was unfamiliar with the name but would 'research' it and provide an answer at a later date.

IRA REPEATS DENIAL OF LINKS WITH FARC GUERRILLAS 04/24/02 09:05 EST

In a statement issued today, the IRA has denied any involvement with left-wing guerrillas in Colombia ahead of a US congressional committee hearing into alleged links between the two groups.

The IRA reiterated that its leadership had sent no-one to Colombia to train or to engage in any military co-operation with any group.

The IRA said the arrest of three Irishmen in Colombia last August on suspicion of training FARC rebels had been "used again in an intense way by opponents of the peace process in Ireland and Britain".

It said this was an "attempt to undermine and subvert the democratic peace process".

It added: "The IRA has not interfered in the internal affairs of Colombia and will not do so."

The IRA said it was "fully committed to a successful outcome of the Irish peace process" and was no threat to that process.

The statement repeated the IRA's denial of links with Colombia which it made shortly after the men were arrested. __________

________________________________________________________

The Irish American Information Service is a non-profit organization providing up-to-the-minute political news from Ireland to the world. The IAIS is funded entirely by your contributions. Please send your tax-deductable contributions to IAIS at the National Press Building, 529 14th Street NW, Suite 837, Washington, DC 20045. You can visit us on the Web at http://www.iais.org

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: The Pooka
Date: 25 Apr 02 - 07:35 PM

Thank you again for all this info, gentleman. Feel like I'm takin' a damn good Seminar, here.

PaddyP & Declan - fascinating stuff, to me anyway. / SF in Border counties & Dublin, hm, yeah makes sense. / *Donegal* though, geez, aren't they sort-of especially, well, "conservative" up there (whatever that means!) I'm thinking of their HUGE vote (70% wasn't it??) in *favor* of FF's recently-rejected (anti-)abortion proposals. Which SF, like Dublin voters, opposed as I recall. / Well that's a different matter I suppose. / Anyway VERY interesting. / I wanna read up more carefully on this Congressional-Columbia business before (maybe) commenting / Fionn - you mentioned Apathy in France, UK & US elections. Here in the US, our election percentage turnouts are almost ALWAYS rotten. I.e. it's nothing *new*, here. Over There -- different story I guess. TTYL

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: Teribus
Date: 26 Apr 02 - 09:57 AM

Been looking through FARC web-site and into the history of their cause. By and large it has mostly been targeted at police or military. Under their (FARC's) articles it is actually a punishable offend for one of their members to kill a civilian.

Within the last month an assasination attempt was made on the life of the current Interior Minister, who is a Presidential candidate. The attempt failed but the method was interesting. A bus packed with explosives parked along the route - not out in the country but right in the middle of the town he was visiting. Interior Minister OK, four civilians killed and an undisclosed number injured.

NOW I WONDER WHO GAVE THEM THAT IDEA ??????

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: Jimmy C
Date: 26 Apr 02 - 04:19 PM

Teribus, I don't know who gave them that idea. Could have been anybody. Just in case you are slyly hinting at the IRA I suggest you read Paddymac submission of the 25th. and then look somewhere else for the responsible party.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: Teribus
Date: 29 Apr 02 - 07:30 AM

JimmyC

Following from the Observer:

Sinn Fein's big blunder

When IRA bombmakers went to train Colombia's drug-running guerrillas, they earned millions of dollars - and the enmity of old friends in the US Northern Ireland - Observer special

Sandra Jordan, Henry McDonald and Ed Vulliamy Sunday April 28, 2002 The Observer

In the city of Villavicencio 12 teenagers lay dead in the street. They had been killed in a classic terrorist attack: the secondary device. Terrorists from the Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) had detonated a small bomb earlier this month hoping to draw troops into a deadly trap. When they arrived, a second, larger bomb exploded, killing the youths instead of the security forces.

That bomb and other similar ones in Colombian cities was to have reverberations not only in South America but also in Washington, Dublin, London and Belfast.

The secondary device was part of a pattern Farc has developed in urban areas over the past year. The organisation rooted in rural Colombia has brought the war into the cities in a reign of terror designed to destabilise and overthrow the American-backed government in Bogotá of Andres Pastrana.

For Farc, the past year has seen notable successes . It has killed 400 police and military officers and caused $500 million (£345m) in damage. But the terror group that taught the Marxist rebels how to stage attacks like that in Villavicencio has scored a major own goal.

Colombian and American officials are convinced that the Provisional IRA - whose political wing is welcome in the White House - trained the narco-terrorists of Farc in bomb-making technology.

The revelations about IRA involvement have placed the republican movement, especially its political wing Sinn Fein, in a precarious position with the Bush administration as well as undermining Unionist support for Northern Ireland's power-sharing coalition. It has shone a spotlight on the party's ambitions in the Republic of Ireland.

Unionists point to the presence of three IRA suspects awaiting trial in Bogotá over allegations that they trained Farc guerrillas. The trio includes James Monaghan, a convicted IRA man and weapons innovator. It was Monaghan back in 1973 who invented the IRA mortar.

Alongside Monaghan is Martin McCauley, a leading figure in the IRA's engineering department who has perfected home-made mortar-like missiles. The Colombian military says McCauley's imprint has been evident in recent Farc attacks.

Even before last week's hearings of the House International Affair's Committee on Capitol Hill, US intelligence had for months been working with their Colombian counterparts to map a web connecting Farc rebels to an international terror network that included the IRA.

Officials briefing The Observer said that while intelligence agencies had gathered 'no conclusive evidence of formal structural links' between Farc and the IRA, there was 'too much apparent traffic from Ireland to the Colombian guerrilla group to be a freelance coincidence'.

One source in the US Drug Enforcement Administration said that IRA links with Farc had been 'in our sights' for six months, while a State Department official added that 'ties had been made, and we expect to intensify them'.

The committee in Washington was hearing evidence after publication of a report saying the IRA had dispatched 15 men to Colombia between 1999 and last autumn, when Monaghan, McCauley and a third man, Sinn Fein's representative in Cuba, Niall Connolly, were arrested.

A fourth man now in the frame could lead the investigation closer to Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams (who refused to testify before the committee). This is allegedly Brian Keenan, who is believed to have come to Colombia a year ago under a false name. Keenan, a hardline Marxist, is a member of the IRA's ruling army council.

The allegations in Washington come, conveniently critics charge, as the White House presses for congressional support to change the 'Plan Colombia' package, allowing US military aid to be used to combat terrorism as well as counter-narcotics operations.

Bush wants to send an extra $98m to train the Colombian army to defend a controversial oil pipeline. Last Thursday, the Committee came under fire by its own members. Democratic Congressman William Delahunt claimed it was sitting 'not to determine facts, but to rubber stamp' conclusions already drawn.

Gerry Adams's allies, meanwhile, kept pressing those giving evidence, including the DEA's director Asa Hutchinson, to say if they were privy to intelligence that the IRA had sanctioned any involvement with Farc operations. 'I don't have any information on that,' Hutchinson replied.

Irish-American friends of Sinn Fein took heart from these remarks. Sinn Fein and the IRA, they believed, were off the hook. Back in Dublin Adams even claimed the Committee's chairman, Henry Hyde, had agreed with the Irish-American representatives that there was no evidence the IRA leadership had sent anyone to Colombia.

However, a Hyde aide told The Observer that the committee's staff had been aware of the testimony of Colombian General Fernando Tapías, who said the IRA had supplied expertise in bombing, mortars and missiles. 'We already knew that the IRA was involved,' Hyde's aide said.

According to intelligence officials, the introductions between Farc and the IRA were made via ETA, the Basque terror group. ETA had a cell in Cuba and has longstanding links with the IRA.

The implications of the Colombian connection are enormous. In Washington, Bush administration officials talk about 'exasperation' over the case. In Northern Ireland the looming trial of the trio held in Bogotá casts a shadow over the peace process.

Irish government figures, too, are exasperated and puzzled. The Clinton administration and the Bush White House have promoted Adams and his colleagues as statesmen who want to make peace. Moreover, up until the Colombian débcle Sinn Fein earned millions of dollars from corporate America.

Privately, Sinn Fein's political opponents are delighted the republican movement has been caught in a trap of its own making. With an Irish general election just weeks away, Sinn Fein's hopes of winning a handful of seats to make a breakthrough appear doomed. The Colombian debacle has added to the evidence that the party has failed to shake off its terrorist links.

The answer to the puzzle is simple: money. Farc is awash with cash thanks to its control of cocaine and heroin exports from Colombia into North America. Senior figures in the Police Service of Northern Ireland and the Irish police believe Farc paid millions of dollars to the IRA for their expertise.

'There is no suggestion the Provos were in Colombia to rearm or prepare to go back to war themselves. This adventure was purely a financial transaction aimed at boosting their war chest,' one Irish police source said.

Nor was the money destined to buy new arms, the sources said. The vast sums of cash channelled by Farc to Ireland via front companies and secret bank accounts was to fund Sinn Fein.

The irony of a terrorist group made rich on the proceeds of cocaine and heroin sending money to the republican movement is not lost on Sinn Fein's opponents. Sinn Fein hopes to make gains in the Irish election, particularly in Dublin where it spearheads the anti-drugs movement.

Across the border, the Farc connection alongside revelations of IRA hit-lists on top Tories, allegations of IRA involvement in the Castlreagh police station break-in and claims that the Provos killed a man in Co. Tyrone last week simply for beating up a senior republican have pulverised unionist faith in Sinn Fein's claims to be a party of peace. The power-sharing coalition is under strain.

Back in Bogotá at rush hour, soldiers stand along main streets in a line that seems to stretch for miles. It is strangely reminiscent of Belfast in 1972 when life ground to a halt due to the bombing campaign of the organisation that has helped Farc besiege Colombia's capital - the IRA.

I had read paddymac's posting before joining in.

By the by - Can anybody offer any reasonable explanation as to why the three men currently being held in Colombia were travelling on false passports?

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST,Declan
Date: 29 Apr 02 - 09:52 AM

Pooka,

There's a strange brand of Irish Catholic conservatism which is very concerned with the rights of the unborn and a little less concerned with their rights once they are born - particularly if they are part of the 'old enemy'. While the Sinn Fein leadership present themselves as radical marxists, many of their supporters on the national question would not necessarily agree with policies on other issues.

On the question of Colombia, it would appear that some former republican activists have been doing some 'consultancy' work down there - sorry if that seems flippant in view of the reports of the deaths. Whether or not this had the sanction of either the army council or the SF leadership (some claim there is no difference betweeen these two) would seem to be the major issue. There is no doubt that the timins both of the arrests in Colombia (as the initial breakthrough on de-commissioning was happening in August) and these hearings in the US (during the election campaign here) is particularly damaging to Sinn Fein. Whether this is coincidental or not is difficult to tell.

I find the link between the break-in in Castlereigh and the finding of the alleged tory hit-list a bit far fetched myself. As to whether MI5 or MI6 are the ones who do the tricks, from my vague memory of reading spy thrillers, I think 6 used to handle internal UK affairs whereas MI5 did the international stuff. The question as to which of them should be working in Belfast is interesting - I suppose it depends on whether you view Norn Ireland as part of the UK or not !

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: paddymac
Date: 29 Apr 02 - 10:05 AM

Here's a piece from today's on-line Independent. --

Police in N Ireland 'sabotage'peace deal By David McKittrick Ireland correspondent, 28 April 2002

Both the Government and senior police figures in Northern Ireland are convinced that top policemen are working against the peace process, according to authoritative sources in Belfast. They believe that a number of officers have been planting exaggerated and distorted newspaper stories with the aim of disrupting the process.

This particularly worries the authorities because it has produced an air of crisis in the peace process, which has built up partly because of the issue of IRA activity in Colombia and of possible IRA involvement in the Castlereagh Special Branch break-in.

But senior sources say that, while republicans have a case to answer, leaks from within the senior echelons of the Police Service of Northern Ireland have seriously exacerbated matters.

One senior source said: "We don't believe the whole thing is orchestrated, but there is an element of political motivation in this and a number of other areas.

"This is more than just innocent gossip and talking to sources. There seem to be a few people who have an axe to grind – individuals who have particular political slants and don't like the process."

During Mo Mowlam's term as Northern Ireland Secretary, a stream of damaging leaks from within government indicated that some were against the process.

Now sources say that some recent reports have been "not entirely wrong", but have been selective and exaggerated with mischievous intent.

Suspicions remain strong that the IRA was involved in the Castlereagh break-in, but this has not been established. Gerry Adams and other Sinn Fein leaders have been adamant that republicans were not responsible.

Castlereagh, Colombia and other issues have been seized on by Unionist opponents of the Good Friday Agreement, who are applying pressure on the Ulster Unionist leader, David Trimble. The issues are to be debated in the Northern Ireland Assembly tomorrow.

Mr Trimble, who met Gerry Adams on Friday, said afterwards: "The crucial point was explained that nobody in the Unionist community believed a word that republicans are saying about recent events. This is rapidly draining the credibility of this administration and this process."

Mr Adams said: "There are difficulties within republicanism about these events and about how others have reacted to these events, and, as Mr Trimble has told us, there are difficulties within Unionism.

"We appreciate that this is the case and understand the destabilising effect of all of these allegations, but the destabilising is more acute within Unionism."

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST,Celtic lad
Date: 30 Apr 02 - 07:04 AM

FARC is a Marxist organisation. The Provisional IRA is a Marxist organisation. Of course everyone travels on false passports!! QED.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST,Declan
Date: 20 May 02 - 11:04 AM

The Irish election results are now all counted, although some recouts will be going on for the rest of the week. In one constituency there was only one vote between two candidates from the same party.

The results are very interesting in a number of ways, but the main one is that the main Government party Fianna Fail (FF) will be returned with about 80 seats. As there are 166 seats this leaves them about 3 short of an overall majority. Their junior partners the Progressive Democrats (PDs) had been written off by many prior to the election but came back with 8 seats - 4 more than they had before. A new FF/PD coalition would have 88 seats - a comfortable majority and would no longer be depending on independents (if that makes any sense!) to form a Government. However the FF leader Bertie Ahern also has other options - he could look for support from some of the 15 independent candidates (3-4 of whom are former FF members) of possibly talk to the Greens abiut a coalition. FF/PD is the most likely, but there will be some tight bargaining to be done, and there was some mud slinging between the parties during the election, which wont help.

The big story in the Election is the collapse of the vote of the main opposition party Fine Gael (FG) who have gone down by 23 seats to 31. Labour are just behind FG on 21, which represents no change on their outgoing position.

The main seat beneficiaries from this collapse are

Independents +8 to 15 PDs +4 to 8 Greens +4 to 6 and Sinn Fein +4 to 5.

Sinn Feins 5 seats were won in Cavan/Monaghan (out-going), Louth, Kerry North and two in Dublin. They polled 6.5% of the national vote and apart from theur wins they had a number of other good showings mainly in Dublin.

The way the numbers have worked out its now almost certain that the question of their being asked to participate in Government will not arise.

So it looks like 5 more years of Fianna Fail, supported either by the PDs the Greens or independents. The opposition is now so fragmented its difficult to see how they can even re-group for the next election - but its a long way to 2007.

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: GUEST
Date: 20 May 02 - 11:22 AM

One more interesting note--the "good showing" by Sinn Fein in Dublin included nearly unseating Bertie's #2 man.

I can't see FF with the Greens, anymore than I can see FF with SF. The Greens and Sinn Fein are too left leaning on social issues, environment, etc to mesh at all.

I'm putting my money on a FF/PD government, though the prospect of the former FF Independents (bet the FF leadership is kicking itself now for backing the wrong horses?) might give them the majority, it will only be by a breath. They'll play it safe with PD I think, as they'll never get all the Independents to line up behind them consistently enough to manage their own agenda with any certainty.

I personally was delighted to see FG go down, and former Tanaiste Spring to be thrown out the door. The regressive Irish Labour party is a joke, IMO. It would be great if the Socialist, Green & Sinn Fein parties could create a strong alliance and leave Labour in the dust. Then perhaps Ireland would see some REAL changes in 2007...

Subject: RE: BS: Irish Politics; aka 'Spin City'
From: The Pooka
Date: 20 May 02 - 08:21 PM

Irish Times says Bertie will discuss coalition deal with several independents, before talking with PD. Seen as possibly a ploy to weaken PD's demand for government posts: 'I don't really need you y'know, I can govern without you, so don't be greedy...'

Fascinating election. This American has gained some understanding of the Irish electorate AND of the single-transferable-vote system, previously a complete mystery to me.

A SF/Green/Socialist opposition coalition bloc (maybe with some Independents??) would seem to make some sense. / Certainly FG's loss was not, for the most part, FF's gain.