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Shanghaiceltic BS Avian flu epidemic? (69* d) RE: BS Avian flu epedemic? 21 Sep 05

I have worked down in Guangzhou where SARS started and where there have been cases of avain flu. The absolutely filthy conditions in which many animals are raised there has to be seen to be believed. Ditto the conditions for many peasant farmers. It is also highly densley populated. If and I think it is when, the jump is made and it does become a human strain then it will spread quickly.

The strains of Hong Kong flu which we saw in the past did not originate in HK they originated in Guangzhopu province. The mobility of the Chinese is now much greater too, particularly from poor areas to the cities.

As usual here the Chinese Govt comment on infections overseas but there is little mentioned in the Chinese press. The Chinese press is state controlled (as is all media) and they can spike a story in the interest of 'social stability'.

Quite honestly if it happens I would not leave China. With modern transportation nowhere is going to be safe.

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