No lies from me Royston.
I use the most reliable figure from the most reliable source.
It does seem devious that you keep using the smaller figure.
As if you were trying to deceive people.
At age 15, I am sure the number of boys infected with HIV through having sex with men is zero, or very, very close to zero.
It will rise steadily with age.
If 5.6% is the average for ages 15 to 44, it will be about 11% at age 44, and still rising except that the median age of death is about 40.
If it is 11% at age 44, were it not for deaths, the proportion would only grow.
No one ever gets better.
Most people are sexually active into their 70s
Do you know how many would have succumbed by then?
My guess would be as valid as yours.
But only a guess.
I do not know.
Unless you have reliable figures, neither do you.