Mudcat Café Message

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User Name	Thread Name	Subject	Posted
AndyG	BS: Mathematical Probability Query (103* d)	RE: BS: Mathematical Probability Query	11 Oct 00
Jon, The sum of the probabilities must be 1. The probability that your first choice is the winner is 1/3. The probability the the cup raised by the house is the winner is 0. The probability that the other cup is the winner is (1 - (0 + 1/3)) = 2/3 OR There is a 1/3 chance to win if you stick. That is your original guess was a selection of one cup from a possible three cups. The house will always disclose an empty cup from the remaining two thus, you now have a choice of only two cups. Your original choice (1/3 chance to win) or the remaining cup 1 - 1/3 (ie 2/3) chance to win. AndyG

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