Thanks, Q and Lighter! A lot of information including many theories can be found at this website, including a listing of the 1889 published lyrics that Q mentions.
A LADY IN LOVE
(First published lyrics from Wehman's Collection, dated October 1889)
Oh, they say from this valley you are going,
I shall miss your blue eye and bright smile;
And, alas! it will take all the sunshine
That has brightened my pathway for awhile.
Then consider well ere you leave us,
Do not hasten to bid us adieu,
But remember the dear little valley,
And the girl that has loved you so true.
Do you think of the home you are leaving,
How sad and how dreary 'twill be?
Do you think of the heart you are breaking,
Or the shadow it will cast over me?
I have waited a long time, my darling,
For the words that you never would say,
And at last all my fond hopes have vanished,
For they tell me you are going away.
It's very interesting seeing how the song has evolved from one version to the next. As Lighter indicates, that it's often possible to figure out which version(s) came before which by studying similarities and differences between the different texts. (Many scholars dealing with manuscripts that are otherwise impossible to date often use that method.) I think it's interesting that the 1889 version seems in many ways to be intermediate between the (previously unpublished) Piper version and later versions. It contains many of the constructions of the Piper lyrics that do not appear in later versions, but also contains some aspects that can be found in later versions but not in the Piper manuscript. I'm not saying that proves the relative dating of the different versions, but it's interesting.
I'm not claiming one thing or another, just making the Piper manuscript available for those who are interested. Based on the totality of the evidence, I suspect the Piper manuscript may record the earliest known version of the lyrics, but I agree we can't know for sure, and the full facts of the song's origin may never be known.
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sj