Lyrics & Knowledge Personal Pages Record Shop Auction Links Radio & Media Kids Membership Help
The Mudcat Cafesj



User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
BK Lick BS: Monty Hall Problem (212* d) RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem 29 Oct 12


I think Jim Dixon's "brute force" method is eminently clear and should be sufficient to convince the most mathematically naive that switching increases the odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.

Increasing the number of doors in the thought experiment usually makes the result seem more intuitive, but I think it may be more effective (psychologically) to consider increasing the number only to ten; observe that the "not switching" strategy wins the prize one time in ten., while the "switching" strategy wins the prize nine times in ten.

Or in the three door problem, consider that switching turns a correct initial guess into a loss but turns an incorrect initial guess into a win. Since the initial guess is twice as likely to be incorrect as correct, switching is twice as likely to win the prize.

If you're intrigued by thought experiments that seem to defy intuition, you might lose some sleep over Newcomb's paradox.
—BK


Post to this Thread -

Back to the Main Forum Page

By clicking on the User Name, you will requery the forum for that user. You will see everything that he or she has posted with that Mudcat name.

By clicking on the Thread Name, you will be sent to the Forum on that thread as if you selected it from the main Mudcat Forum page.
   * Click on the linked number with * to view the thread split into pages (click "d" for chronologically descending).

By clicking on the Subject, you will also go to the thread as if you selected it from the original Forum page, but also go directly to that particular message.

By clicking on the Date (Posted), you will dig out every message posted that day.

Try it all, you will see.