"..... the facts and analysis presented seem valid. " An opinion is not a "fact", and 'valid' refers to syllogistic logic. So the article presents neither fact NOR logic. One can agree with it or not, but it is merely a subjective hypothesis based on supposed relevance to other analyses of past conflicts in other parts of the world. STARTING a war... for ANY reason... would be stupid. The world's basic reaction would be "You had no proof 'they' were going to shoot first."
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