My surmise is that the new variant IS more transmissible, and I haven't said that it isn't. But someone here has put an arbitrary figure of "70% more contagious" which was a rehashed comment made by one quasi-maverick bloke in the UK and which is a claim bereft of evidence. The responsible thing is to base our opinions on credible facts. It is not responsible to jump on a titbit of a unsupported comment made by one person and use it to tell people of more measured opinion that they are pretending. That's all. And there's no need for you to disagree. I'd be quite happy to be wrong.

The infection rate here has burgeoned. It is a cold winter. Ten million people in London and around were in an ineffective tier until not long before Christmas. The government failed to call a firebreak at the October half term. Instead, we had a panic-stricken December lockdown...in which schools were allowed to stay open, fer chrissake. Secondary schools in particular are known to be virus pits. All through the autumn, people from the most infected areas were allowed to go on holiday in droves. Here in Cornwall, where rates have been low, we were swamped with tourists from the biggest and most infected urban areas right up to the beginning of November. It was actually phenomenal. Round here today, the roads are as busy as ever. In the March lockdown, in contrast, there was no traffic. Yesterday, in a supposed lockdown, in a three-mile drive from Bude to my house, I saw five motor homes and a camper van, on the first day of a supposed lockdown, and the locals round here can tell you of second homes still occupied.

Yes there is a variant that may be - probably is - more transmissible. That variant first exploded into action in London and around, a big crowded city that was still enjoying it pub and cafe culture. But when you're trying to get your head around the parlous state the country is in, to use "a more transmissible variant" as the exclusive explanation as to why we have so many infections is just what this benighted government wants you to think. Nice way of diverting the blame away from them. In all probability, it is just one factor among all the others I've just listed. Let's not be taken in, and let's go with all the caveats that you can pick out in this post, if you bother to look.