Equally though, Nigel, are you saying if the vote had been Remain there would have been no rise in the NHS budget?   Surely there would have been. So any rise due to Brexit would rationally have to be over and above that which would happen anyway?

Now, actually knowing how much over and above what would have happen is probably unknowable (though you could perhaps form an estimate of what the rise not due to Brexit would have been if historical trends were followed.) But it is clearly dubious to allocate all the rise to Brexit effects.