Hi Amos,

This situation is intriguing me also.

I think the recent debate in the Taiwan Parliament is on Referenda in general. The thing that the media and the Government in Beijing lept on was that if this goes through and Referenda are allowed in Taiwan, it may well lead to there being a Referendum on the question of independence. In such a case and the people of Taiwan come out resoundingly in favour of independence, then the Taiwanese government would have no option but to go with it.

At that point the trouble would start, as China will not countenance what they see as the breaking up of China, the US has pledged itself to defend Taiwan if threatened/attacked by mainland China. The bit I saw on this on the news this morning is that the US position is that they do not want to see anything happen that alters the status quo between China and Taiwan.

But you are right in that this will be a bit of a poser.