And everyone here keeps ignoring Clark and Lieberman, who didn't campaign in Iowa. So next week, it's a whole other ball game.

I'm hoping that Lieberman will get knocked out next week, the way that Gephardt did yesterday. That will certainly clarify things, won't it? That would leave a possible candidacy from Kucinich (if he can hang on and stay in the debates it will be tremendous help to keep the party moving to the left), Dean, Kerry, Sharpton, and Edwards.

Sharpton won't drop out until after SC. Kucinich may be able to hang on until then, maybe not. Lieberman is likely out the door next week. Clark is the joker wild right now, but is tied with Dean for first in the polls, which may or may not shift this week. If the polls shift this week, it could have as much to do with the State of the Union as Iowa, since Iowa and NH are two different political animals entirely. Iowa voters tend to be much more conformist than NH voters, so Dean could still easily win there, considering how far back Kerry is right now there.

I doubt we'll know who the contender is before Super Tuesday though. This one is going to go to likely end up a photo finish, with everybody uniting after Super Tuesday behind Kerry, Edwards, or Dean. If everybody can put aside the differences and bad vibes of the primary races, the Dems will come out of the gate very strong, unified, and ready for a serious fight in March. Which is the neocons worst nightmare.