People are forgetting the Super Delegates in the Democratic convention that will affect the choice of the Democrat who will run against Bush.
Here is a bit about Super Delegates.

http://www.poliblogger.com/poliblog/archives/002024.html

Democratic Party has a system (via the "Super-Delegate"
   system), where 40% of the delegates to the convention are party elites...

The Democratic super-delegates are the party's elected
         elite: all 278 Democratic governors and members of
         Congress, as well as "distinguished party leaders" such
         as former President Clinton, former Vice President Al
         Gore, and former Senate Majority Leader George
         Mitchell.

         The super-delegates also include party operatives such
         as the chairmen of each state party and the heads of
         groups such as the National Conference of Democratic
         Mayors.

         Also given "super" status are the 425 members of the
         Democratic National Committee. DNC members are
         allotted on the basis of the population of each state and
         its Democratic vote in presidential elections.