The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #66455 Message #1105857
Posted By: Big Mick
31-Jan-04 - 10:29 AM
Thread Name: BS: Kerry nails New Hampshire
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry nails New Hampshire
I have been following this thread with great interest. I find Frank's take on things to be clearly thought out.
I think Dr. Dean has changed the nature of this campaign, and brought a message that is necessary. And he is not out of this. Unfortunately, I think he ought to be. I do not say this because I don't like him. I do. But this is the veteran political operative speaking. If Dean gets the nomination, the opposition will "McGovernize" him so quickly, that there will be no hope of winning. And as I said last fall, winning this thing is the most important thing. He has a couple of things working against him. First, it is always an error to peak to soon. Second, he has allowed the opposition to define him. They are literally salivating at him being the candidate. Think George McGovern and Michael Dukakis. The latter point is not always fatal. But it usually is.
In his favor, he has brought new people to the campaign, but historically that is not a major advantage, if the majority of the support does not come from the traditional "base". The base voters are the ones that go out and vote every time. He has drawn some of these, but many others are unsure about him. Remember that the hardest thing to get average folks to do is to change status quo. If they are edgy about it, when they are in the privacy of that booth, most of the time they will vote to stay with status quo unless status quo is unbearable.
This is shaping up to be a very interesting primary season.