But "in the country overall" isn't a vote that decides anything, as demonstrated last time. It doesn't really matter who gets the most popular votes, if they don't stack up to a majority of electoral college votes.

From what I've seen in the media, in most states, the margin between the vote for the main parties is so wide that there is virtually no prospect of it going the other way, and delivering the electoral college votes to the other side, and they are the only votes that matter. (Apart from the Supreme Court votes in the crunch...)