Madrid bombing changed the election result
Up until last Thursday's devastating bombings in Madrid, which killed 200 and injured more than 1,500 people, opinion polls had clearly shown that the conservative Popular Party would win the election by a comfortable margin. However, the widespread belief that an al-Qaeda-linked terror group was behind the mass murder completely changed the closing dynamics of the election.
From this, and many other accounts.

I'm afraid Aznar's party was expected to win this election, Bobert, as the Spanish public was not generally expected to vote along Foreign Policy lines