When you do something, and it is pretty obvious that it is going to have certain results, it is reasonable to assume that these results are part of your intention in carrying out that action.

The terrorists on both sides - within the IDA and Al Hamas etc - make claims that their intention is that their violence will deter the other side. However this seems so self-evidently contradicted by what actually happens that it requires a very convoluted kind of reasoning to accept it.

The simpler explanation is that in both cases the actual intention is to achieve what is achieved - to ensure that the extremists on the other side have their position bolstered, and that nothing will interfere with the continuing war which ensures their own power.

I am a bit puzzled by the way the term "conspiracy theory" is thrown around. A "conspiracy" just means that a number of people collectively agree that something should be done, and that they require a degree of confidentiality. That is what happens in all politics and in all business. All attempts from outside to understand what is going on are therefore by definition "conpiracy theories". Some of these are right and some are wrong, that's all.