Here you go Don. Of course, the jury is out until the first Tuesday in November. But today's results of the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll supports my theory. When the two candidates are roughly identical in their positions on the major issues of the election, the incumbent, particularly in wartime, will win.

Now, if I could figure that out, why couldn't the Democratic Leadership Council? The Democrats couldn't have picked a more unelectable candidate than Kerry.

Here is an excerpt from the article in today's Post:

Poll Shows New Gains For Bush
Lead Over Kerry Widens On Issues of Security

By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, April 20, 2004; Page A01

President Bush holds significant advantages over John F. Kerry in public perceptions of who is better equipped to deal with Iraq and the war on terrorism, and he has reduced the advantages his Democratic challenger held last month on many domestic issues, according to a Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

The poll also found that Iraq and the war on terrorism have surged in importance, and ranked with the economy and jobs as top voting issues. Despite signs of concern among Americans about the violence in Iraq, the poll showed Bush's approval ratings holding steady and Kerry's slipping on a variety of issues and attributes.