It does us all well to remember it is still a long way to November.

On the plus side for getting rid of Bush, there is the fact that he had to spend $50 million on Kerry bashing ads in the last month to get these results. On the downside for Bush staying in office, there is the fact that he's been hit in recent weeks with all the bad shit imaginable, and the polls show him gaining, not losing ground.

As I said in another thread, my theory is, when faced with two candidates with similar positions on the main issues of the election, the voters will choose the incumbent, particularly in war time. Although it may only be by a slim majority, enough people will always vote to stay the course and maintain the status quo, to re-elect the incumbent. Nowhere is that dynamic more apparent than in the US senate.

We'll see how things play out. If the Iraq war or Afghanistan or the war on terrorism goes so terribly bad that we are humiliated, as happened with Carter and the Iran hostage situation, Bush will lose. However, if this low level insurgency and charges against the Bush administration for serious wrongdoing becomes background noise, Bush will most likely win, because there are glimmers of hope for the economy right now. So long as interest rates don't shoot up along with inflation. I don't know how much longer inflation will be held in check with the rise in energy costs. We'll see. Too many unknowns right now to predict anything accurately in November. The situation is much too volatile right now for that to happen.