"They may have lost a major base of operations, Strick, but I would doubt that the citizens of Madrid would agree with you that they are anyhow less effective."

Jim, before those bases were destroyed, al Qaeda was turning out more trained recruits per year than the FBI and CIA combined. That's not happening anymore. Some of those trainees are dead or in prison, but most are out there some where. I don't think Afghanistan had anything to do with the Madrid attack or the attack the US can expect just prior to our election.

"The much publicised PDB was entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US". Condi Rice has called this a 'historical document', although the title suggests it more to be prophetic one (unless you read 'Determined' as implying the past tense)..."

Jim, reread the briefing and try to see it with pre-9/11 eyes. With the possible exception of the items which the briefing says were unconfirmed and what we now know was a misleading overstatement of the FBI investigations underway, there's nothing in that briefing that would have been news two or three years earlier. Ben Laden wants to attack the US (again) and is considering hijacking planes or using bombs. Period. Duh.