The trouble with measuring the economy by any factors is the lag time between causes and effect (several years?).
The high national debt is also concerning. Isn't it entirely possible that jobs are being created due to the amount of spending? Also, economies do not shrink or grow at a continuous rate, but in cycles.

If my economics is wrong, please set me right, as I was taught using the UK as a model, rather than the US.

However, I think that using economic factors in the way you have, Larry K, is just as inaccurate and subject to change and interpretation, as polls are.