Thanks for the reference to the Lancet article, Guest, I had often wondered where the "cutback" on the original numbers came from.

I think one of the big problems in this whole situation was the misperception that Iraq was a rural country, when something like 70% of the country is urban, and had (at least until the end of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's) a Baathist regime with socialist aims -- something like Cuba, though of course more vicious. If you destroy infrastructure in urban societies, the mortality rates skyrocket -- just as they would if we had a blackout for two or three weeks across North America. Urban areas are so fragile when the basic services collapse. I think the Americans learned that the second time around, which is why the damage last year was relatively minimal, but the first time around was a disaster.

yours,

Peter T.